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ffr

(22,670 posts)
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 11:25 PM Nov 2012

GOTV Colorado (CO), 11/03/12 Reps vote lead shrinks

With 1,462,163 votes cast in early voting, Reps lead Dems by 3.2 points and Republican lead shrinks.

Republican lead
~37,721 votes

Statewide early/mail numbers:
Democrats -- 567,448 or 34.6 percent (Dems to Reps only 48.4%)
Republicans -- 605,168 or 36.9 percent (Dems to Reps only 51.6%)
Others -- 467,407 or 28.5 percent

Assuming Colorado IAPs support based on recent polls of 48/31 (79% of 1.00) in favor of Obama and unscientifically assuming the majority of the 21% undecideds split the same way and discarding what remains (about 5%) as votes for 3rd party candidates, the numbers above would reflect:

Dems: 838,918 or 51.8%
Reps: 780,492 or 48.2%

This may be or may not be something closer to a realistic conservative estimate of the final result ratios, but it does place weight on undecideds. So pick which ratios you believe, then get Democrats to the poll!
GMU.EDU 2012 Election Statistics
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GOTV my fellow Democrats. Come on Colorado! Swing the congressional balance of power to Obama. Victory 2012

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