2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhat is Obama's deal with Bill Clinton?
At the risk of sounding just a little crass, it is clear to me there is some kind of understanding between Obama and Bill Clinton. Clinton has been working his ass off like no other former President has ever done. Maybe Gore and Kerry never asked him. Maybe Bill is just doing it because he thinks it is the right thing to do. Or maybe he is doing it because he just loves to campaign.
But I am thinking there is some understanding and it probably relates to Hillary. I have no idea if she is giving any serious consideration to running or has already made up her mind to do so. But if she is leaning that way, I could certainly see an understanding where Obama promises to endorse Hillary and work as hard campaigning for her as Bill worked for Barack. And part of that understanding might include the huge organization and fund-raising machine the Obama team has developed. That is a vital asset for whoever runs next.
It is clear to me the Dem bench is a little soft. There may be a whole bunch of players coming up the "farm system" but none of them really stand out at this moment. I could definitely see a party strategy where Hillary plans to run and serve a single term, teaming up with a VP from that younger generation, with the idea being to turn it over to the next generation in 2020.
There are a lot of Margaret Thatcher types coming up in the GOP. It would be a damn shame for one of them to end up being the first woman elected President, given how decidedly anti-woman the GOP is.
Any speculation on how that conversation with Bill and Barack went?
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)corner!!!!
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)RomneyLies
(3,333 posts)If Hillary announces for 2016, no other candidate will be acceptable to me.
mzmolly
(50,996 posts)He's still a public servant at heart.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)Hillary has insisted repeatedly that she's not running again. But Bill just seems to eat this stuff up - evidently he's happiest when he's out there speaking and pressing the flesh, even if it's not him that's running for office. And he's incredibly good at it.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)Maybe he wasn't asked, which would have been a really foolish decision, I think.
Mr.Bill
(24,303 posts)Obama can stand beside him at least as an equal.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)Don't know about Kerry.
Cha
(297,323 posts)was running. but, he did get out a little and poor thing he looked not healthy but he was recovering.
It's seems like Gore wanted the country to forget about Monica..and he got that simpering pious bullshitter, Lieberman, as his VP candidate. Ugh
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)IIRC, Gore kind of distanced himself from him because of the Lewinsky situation. At the time, maybe that was a good move, but 12 years later things have changed a lot. I'm not sure why Kerry didn't make more use of him.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)I think the situation between Gore and Clinton was a totally different ball of wax. I'm not sure about Kerry. His campaign was run pretty poorly though and they didn't fight back hard enough like Obama has. If anything it was Kerry's campaign and the questionable election practices in a few states that did him in.
Cha
(297,323 posts)bit. I still remember what he looked like and it was not well.
The Velveteen Ocelot
(115,735 posts)Cha
(297,323 posts)helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)Surgery when Kerry was running.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)davidpdx
(22,000 posts)The timing was unfortunate. Then again if he'd ignored his doctors and gone out campaigning that would have been dangerous.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)So that's probably a big part of it. It's also possible that he didn't really want Kerry to win because Hillary was planning to run in 2008 if he didn't, but there is little concrete evidence of that, and I think the emergency surgery was a pretty good excuse. He did come out and campaign with Kerry in late September of 2004 and probably after that, although I don't think he was a constant presence in 2004 the way he is now.
In 2000, my understanding is that Gore wanted to distance himself from Clinton because of the Lewinsky scandal, so he did not seek Clinton's help as much as he probably should have. He was also preoccupied with helping Hillary win the Senate seat. According to something I read, he really worked his ass off with that because he wanted to try to make it up to her for all his failings in their marriage.
Cosmocat
(14,566 posts)Gore did not want the Big Dog involved in his campaign, and Clinton had health issues in 2004.
Beyond that, time has been kind to him from a public perception standpoint, it has been 12 years, he is no threat to run for anything else again, so all people focus on is him as a positive for the most part, so he becomes a very affirmative campaigner.
I agree that the primary motive is just that he loves campaigning so much.
I do think Hill will run, but no deals have been cut. I agree that people note that Bill probably appreciates the way BO has treated Hillary, and I suspect that ASSUMING things turn out well Tuesday, BO will likely turn his operation over to Hillary for 2016, and assuming things go well for a second term, I assume he will strongly endorse her and work for as much as it is viable.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)I think he has gotten more popular the longer he has been out of office, and his support is probably worth more now than it would have been for Kerry or especially Gore.
If Hillary runs in 2016, Obama might quietly support her, but I don't think he would publicly endorse her before the end of the primaries (assuming he wins on Tuesday). My understanding is that sitting presidents usually stay neutral during the primaries for their successor. Of course, if Obama loses on Tuesday he will be a former president in 2016 and can endorse whoever he wants, but his endorsement wouldn't carry much clout then.
I agree that part of Clinton's motive is he just loves campaigning. Also, I think he sees Obama winning on Tuesday as validation of his economic policies.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)I didn't mean to imply they had signed a legal contract.
But I do think there is a HUGE asset in Obama's team and the systems they have put together -- including the campaign offices. Obama kept most of this going from 2008 onward. As he will not be running again, one would them that he'd close it down, but I expect instead he Pflouffe and the others would be thinking about ways to keep that machine.
Remember, this is separate from the Democratic Party apparatus, which is a big departure from how things were before the 2008 campaign. Party bosses would probably like to take control of that, but I'm thinking Obama will want to keep it separate.
In a Citizen's United world, I don't think any Dem could win without these systems.
Cosmocat
(14,566 posts)it is VITAL that they keep the Obama campaign machine going, and find a way to transition it to the next nominee.
awake
(3,226 posts)Historic NY
(37,451 posts)he was more popular after his inpeachment is thats a hint.
http://articles.cnn.com/1998-12-20/politics/1998_12_20_impeachment.poll_1_impeach-senators-vote-trial-or-censure?_s=PM:ALLPOLITICS
ProfessionalLeftist
(4,982 posts)DrToast
(6,414 posts)She's running again. Take it to the bank. That kind of ambition doesn't go away.
Chance to be the first female President? Yeah, she's running.
DrToast
(6,414 posts)I think he also realizes that if Hillary is going to run in 2016 (and I think she is), she'd probably have a better chance after Obama's second term than Mitt Romney's first term.
Sekhmets Daughter
(7,515 posts)I think Bill Clinton loves the campaign trail. I think he believes that helping Obama is good politics if Hillary does decide to run. I think he sees how dangerous is this new breed of republicans. So there are several reasons he would do this much campaigning.
I also believe that you need to re-think the idea that anyone who would want to be president would want to serve just one term.
Lex
(34,108 posts)Floyd_Gondolli
(1,277 posts)I believe the reason Hillary is leaving her SOS job is tied to her 2016 plans. As it stands now she's probably in the evaluation stage and wants to slow her world down and make a final decision. She would also have to leave the job eventually if she were to run.
As to why Clinton is working for Obama that seems pretty simple. He enjoys the trail. Always has. This is a chance to feed that in a high profile way.
Second, i think he has come to respect Obama. Relationships don't exist in a vacuum. This isn't Feb-April 2008. Things have changed.
Third, he's doing it with an eye to the future. That's just good inside politics. He has earned some chips that he may cash in.
I do not agree with your assertion Kerry has not been involved in the campaign. He played Willard in their debate prep and was roundly praised for his role helping Obama win 2 of 3 debates. He's been a strong advocate for Obama since he announced 4 years ago.
And finally, the Dem bench is just fine. Hillary, Biden are the top tier. Cuomo and O'Malley are second tier and you could throw in Schweitzer and someone like Hickenlooper in a third tier. Any way you slice it it's a whole lot better than anything the GOP has to offer.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)I said:
1) Clinton didn't take such an active role campaigning for Kerry in 2004
2) No former President has ever campaigned like this for a successor -- at least not in modern times.
I never suggested Kerry was unhelpful. On the contrary, I think he has been very helpful, and actually had one of his finest hours in his convention speech.
LukeFL
(594 posts)Kerry didn't use Clinton because of his heart surgery st the time.
I would like to see Hillary/ Warner/ Julian castro for 2016
rbrnmw
(7,160 posts)Floyd_Gondolli
(1,277 posts)YvonneCa
(10,117 posts)...campaigning for the President. https://twitter.com/JohnKerry
Seems to be enjoying it.
Cha
(297,323 posts)YvonneCa
(10,117 posts)...
Cha
(297,323 posts)NYC Liberal
(20,136 posts)Name one former president in the last 50 years who was as good a campaigner as Clinton is.
Nixon?
Ford?
Reagan? (By the end of his 8 years he was out of it)
Poppy?
Shrub? ( )
meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)He said that he liked how well Barack treated her. So maybe he is grateful for Obama caring for his wife and respecting her position and this is a return gratitude for that
BeyondGeography
(39,374 posts)Bill loves the game; this is his oxegyn. I don't see Obama making a political deal here. Second-term incumbents typically stay out of the way re. their own party's nomination process.
RomneyLies
(3,333 posts)If Hillary Clinton announces she is running for president in 2016, I will support her 100% the day she announces.
I suspect that so will Barack Obama, whether he announces or not.
Cha
(297,323 posts)just donated to him the first time right before he Won Iowa!
LukeFL
(594 posts)If she decides to run. No other woman is more deserving to be the first female president as Hillary. If she decides to run and becomes the nominee i would like to see a Hillary/ Julian ticket.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)I was an Obama supporter in 2008 but I would consider supporting Hillary in 2016 if she runs. However, I don't think she will run...everything she has said indicates that she really does not want to, and I believe her.
demhottie
(292 posts)Hillary won't run in 2016.
Bill Clinton is following his convictions. No deals have been cut.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)MrSlayer
(22,143 posts)The Obama team knows how to work the modern election way better than anyone. That includes the Clintons. No one knows how to do retail politics better than Bill Clinton. And that includes the Obama team. I scratch your back, you scratch mine.
Hillary Clinton will be running for President in 2016. And she'll probably win. We need to see what the pukes are going to do after tuesday. Will they double down on the crazy or will they back away from the baggers and go "moderate"?
Cha
(297,323 posts)Lugnut
(9,791 posts)They sure look like they do to me. Whatever it is I like it!
GoCubsGo
(32,086 posts)budkin
(6,703 posts)exboyfil
(17,863 posts)working the crowds for votes in 2016 and 2020. It would be enough to make any Republican have ulcers. No one in the Republican party can give speeches like these two.
democrattotheend
(11,605 posts)I think that if (when) Obama wins on Tuesday he will be more popular in his second term, because the economy is starting to rebound and he will have a stronger case that his policies are working. So I can see Obama and Bill Clinton campaigning for whoever runs in 2016...the Democratic dream team.
greymattermom
(5,754 posts)is that Hillary is tired of traveling and wants to be on the Supreme Court.
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)Obama will probably get to make a few appearances at the Clinton Global Initiative. Bill gets to be back in the spotlight and continue to polish his legacy.
lunatica
(53,410 posts)obamanut2012
(26,080 posts)Why can't he just be an ex President who actually cares about the US not being flung back to 1950 or before? Maybe he is just being a good guy?
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Bill Clinton went a long way to winning me back over after he really said some not so nice things about Obama back in the primaries 4-4 1/2 years ago. But that is done and Clinton gave a brilliant speech at the DNC. It just set the tone for the party.
We have some awesome Dems that have been out there for Obama. And the Repubs had to hide Bush. Makes me feel pretty good about the party I belong to.
I think no matter who wins the nomination in 2016, it will be a far better candidate then what the Repubs offer up. We have a deep bench and if it is Hillary at the end I will stand behind her. If she decides not to run, then I will appreciate all the hard work she put in for President Obama.
Onlooker
(5,636 posts)I think Obama really respects Hillary. She's been an outstanding secretary of state. One of the best. I think she'll run in 2016, and Obama's machine will be there for her (provided he wins).
Bleacher Creature
(11,257 posts)I agree 100% with the comment above that Clinton is doing it for love of country and with the comment about how he loves being on the stump. I also think that Clinton knows that 8 years of Obama, who is largely calling for a return to Clinton-era economic policies, will largely prove that he had it right all along.
Secret_Society
(476 posts)In addition to campaigning for Obama, Bill has done a lot of campaigning down ticket. I think he genuinely thinks this is the right thing to do and enjoys it but I'd bet he also recognizes the benefit it will be for Hillary if everyone in the party feels indebted to him. I doubt Obama and Clinton ever actually had a conversation like that, just think Bill is shoring support in the party IN CASE Hillary decides to run. I hope she does but don't think there is any grand scheme in the works.