And appear to reflect the growing consensus out there.

I don't know enough about the state legislative races to comment, but picking up that number seems like quite a lot!

a seat or two?

I think the House pickups is about in the right range.

I will be VERY happy if BO can show a 3% popular gain advantage.

I think in REALITY the President will win Florida, but that Scott and company will turn it into an absolute clusterscrew, and it very well might not be called for a while, and unless it breaks a little more toward the President might go to Romney. I think unlike Ohio, the margin there will be small enough they can figure out how to swing it away from the President as they go along.

NV would be nice, too--rejection of teabaggers must start sooner rather than later.

Obama will WIN Ohio, Florida, North Carolina... ALL of the crucial swing states?

The evidence is conflicted on Florida, but tight. North Carolina I think will go to Romney, but I'm not ruling it out.

again, OH is crucial. I know there's all sorts of convoluted formulas regarding how one wins the election w/o OH... but I'm not buying it. You have to win OH.

in the House rather than being in the majority by a few votes.

I don't know that I agree with that because the Speaker does have a lot of advantages, and a majority allows asshats like Issa to have a megaphone.

But legislatively if Boehner has a majority around +10, he has a huge problem on his hands, and effectively the only way he can get anything passed into law is by breaking with teabaggers and teaming with some Democrats.

Obama will get more than 281.NC remains In play.Florida and NC I won't predict but Obama will win other swing states.

NC Is still swing state.Early voting has been going very well.Non conservative polls have good results for Obama.

Nate can be wrong about specific states.

2008-he had Obama winning MO and losing Indiana

200-He had republicans winning senate races In Nevada and COlorado and democrat winning senate race In Illinois

But,let's say Nate Is totally right that still gives Obama 303 electoral votes not 281 you listed.

Early voting has been goin very well.Independents are moving to Obama,and already some signs are that dems are getting registered voters to polls.

Conservative on my prediction.

Non republican polls have shown It better for Obama.Takes RAS,Mason Dixen,and Gravis out and It Is close In NC.

Still In My prediction I am not calling eather Florida or NC.

is blowing up the likely voter model that many of the polls that Nate relies on are using.

The field offices in NC are getting people to vote for Obama who not only are not likely voters but who aren't, prior to their vote, even registered voters.

I believe Obama will carry NC and when he does it will become a textbook case study for years to come.

Other than Rasmussen and Gravis Marketing, the only poll in that period showing Romney ahead is one SurveyUSA poll. Going back farther, NC has been virtually tied for months. Neither candidate will carry it by more than 2%.

See my threads.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251171317


http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251208721

did make McCain keep resources in MO and it helped nationwide.

We aren't taking NC and I highly doubt Fl.

Obama won't hit 300+ EV, no way.

Yes we are turning NC Blue--again!

***** Official Pre-Election Electoral College Vote = Predictions Thread *****
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021644060
It's not official w/o the five stars (and a cartoon, please).

that is with Romney winning Fla and NC and Iowa (I am being charitable) and Colorado and 1 in NH
Obama wins VA and all the other battleground states