Lets be honest. If Obama loses Ohio, there will be no reason to ever look at polling data again.

Here is the RCP average for Ohio. I believe these numbers actually leave out 1 or 2 credible polling surveys in the state that also show Obama ahead.

RCP Average 10/23 - 11/3 -- -- 49.3 46.5 Obama +2.8

Columbus Dispatch* 10/24 - 11/3 1501 LV 2.2 50 48 Obama +2

Rasmussen Reports 11/1 - 11/1 750 LV 4.0 49 49 Tie

NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/31 - 11/1 971 LV 3.1 51 45 Obama +6

CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/1 796 LV 3.5 50 47 Obama +3

WeAskAmerica 10/30 - 11/1 1649 LV 2.6 50 46 Obama +4

Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. 10/25 - 10/30 1182 LV 2.9 48 46 Obama +2

SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/29 603 LV 4.1 48 45 Obama +3

Gravis Marketing 10/27 - 10/27 730 LV 3.6 50 49 Obama +1

PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 718 LV 3.7 51 47 Obama +4

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 10/23 - 10/28 1110 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5

Purple Strategies 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 46 44 Obama +2

ARG 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 49 47 Obama +2



These are 12 different polls conducted over 12 days. Even if you average the right wing pollsters together (Rasmussen, ARG, Gravis) Obama still leads. If Obama loses Ohio, either every single one of these industry leading experts were wrong, or their were election day legal issues. Those are the only possible outcomes looking at this much objective, conclusive data.

NBC even "unskewed their poll" for right wing conspiracists and still had Obama +3.






In 2008, RCP's polling average of each state was deadly accurate in predicting outcomes.

In 2008 the RCP state averages missed only in Indiana and North Carolina. Both of those elections were within about 1% point. And in both of those elections it had Obama losing, and he came back to win. The only other state missed in the RCP average was Nevada. The RCP average had Obama winning by a slim margin. And it ended up being a blowout in Obama's favor. (Nobody knows how to count hispanics.)

That was it. Therefore we can conclude the RCP average is generally dead on accurate or is undercounting Obama's total.

Outside of this, for every other state in 2008, you could determine the winner, just by looking at the RCP average for that particular state.



If everyone works hard, we will win. PERIOD.








BTW... what does it say about our society and main stream media that NBC felt obligated to unskew a high tech, scientific, math data driven equation, just because the scientific outcome would be disliked by conservatives?


And you guys wonder why Americans don't believe in climate change? And want creationism taught in schools? NBC's move really says a lot about who we are as a country. Its very sad.