...Florida going for Mitt? The ones who vote are mostly seniors on medicare and social security--right? Why is it swinging towards the guys who want to destroy these programs?

...there's still a lot of entrenched multi-generational Cuban support for our endless feud with Castro - and in fairness, this isn't entirely a Republican-only feud. Just because the Batista supporters are dying off doesn't mean that their following generations haven't been thoroughly indoctrinated into what a supposed Golden Age that plutocratic thug created.

It's kind of a religion among the Cuban 'exiles-in-waiting'. And really, what small percentage of people choose their religion? Almost everyone sticks with what they're born into.

When both Castros finally die the U.S. will re-establish diplomatic and trade relations within one year. That seems likely to happen before the 2014 cycle.

And Florida will go blue.

and it's messing up the numbers. The non-cuban hispanics are very excited about the POTUS, but the pollsters have been oversampling the right wing Cubans. Sadly, the Cubans in Florida always fall for that bullshit "Dems are Communists" bullshit. The republicans count on it. WHY do we think that Romney's peeps came out this week calling the PResident just like Castro and Chavez? It's calculated...

Opening up Cuba is on my wishlist of things I hope can get done in the next four years. The insanity has gone on long enough

Don't like the idea of a non white Potus.

Screw those that come behind.

and he'd take it from existing Medicate recipients before he'd tax the wealthy. Hedge your bets seniors, a vote against Romney is the safest choice.

retired AFL-CIO workers who've forgotten how they got their pension. This state was virtually built with defined pensions. Florida is going to be in a world of hurt once the retirees with decent pensions start dying off and there's nothing to replace them with.

There may be many more who are delusional enough to think they don't, but they do. A person over 65 who is generally in good health would have trouble buying a policy on the individual market for 20 grand a year. Not that many seniors have an extra 20k+ a year laying around.

or lost their homes in the mortgage melt-down.

That means that a higher percentage, although by no means all, seniors in Florida have some income other than Social Security such as a work-related pension or a sizable 401(K).

I suspect that the demographic within the senior population in Florida may have shifted just a bit.

They figure they are safe from cuts. And, as an older group they are not keen on changes.

It was up around 57 percent a few days ago, and it is drip, drip, dripping down. We might run out of time between now and the election that it dips to within the margin of error, but I still have hope Obama can take it.

Sam

Repubs also apparently believe that, since they are doing everything they can to suppress turnout, particularly in Democratic areas.

The repugnant goons have pushed the meme that the economic problems are Obama's fault.

Not everybody is smart enough or has enough sense of history to realize the train wreck started with W.

started with W"

Today's Doonesbury captured this beautifully - see the two threads on the Greatest Page for it.

believe rmoney will help SS and medicare. They do not want obamacare, they do not want medicare for all. Sounds like the home of the greedy, ignorant seniors...

Face it, many if not most people are ignorant and stupid. They do not have the critical thinking skills to filter out the crap that they are bombarded with in the media.
There are somewhere around 2000 right wing hate radio stations in the USA. There are maybe 200 progressive liberal stations on the air. (I do not have current data on these numbers but the proportion is close to that.)
When I say hate, I mean HATE! Yes, it is illogical and dangerous but it is perfectly legal at this time.
I feel that the right wants to create a Theocratic Government in an unholy alliance with fundamentalist sects where their religious precepts are the rules. They were interrupted by this man Barack Obama getting elected. It really has nothing to do with their candidate because they are intent on limiting the electorate to a point where their people win, democracy be damned. Actually a very simple concept.
So back to Florida; limit the electorate, constantly promote the fear based negative agenda and with the current elected government assisting complete the disfranchisement and there you have it.
Fucking stupid people who should know better are being led to the slaughter.

I think many people may not realize this. This has been a red state forever. Not just because there are many wealthy Americans living here but also because Florida has a large population of white retirees who vote conservative every time.

It defies logic but we are red and sadly I don't see that changing any time soon.

That said, I do think Obama still has a little chance to win this state on Tuesday. A small one but it is still a chance. I'm praying for an Obama win here so I can be proud of my state.

Different demographic than the Florida you're thinking of.

seeing Nate on a lot of talk shows and interviews in the last 2 weeks

i hope this has not affected his math/formulas/accuracy. he needs to make sure he's got his **** together.

Do you think he would risk ruining his reputation? That is all he has.

The actual work of entering the numbers is nothing compared to the time it takes for the sources to come up with the numbers.

If Virginia is called for Obama, those of us who have to work on Wednesday morning have at least a chance of a good night's sleep. (I don't know why anyone considers Nevada a toss up at this point. Nevada has always polled for Obama, I don't think it has ever been in doubt).

Silver throw out Rasmussen and Gravis Marketing, North Carolina would be a toss up. His excuse want matter on Wednesday if he claims it was a shocker.

..but I just dont get New Hampshire going for Romney.....seriously, can someone explain that to me? Then again, a state that had elected a racist asinine jerk like John Sununu might explain a lot, but I have always thought of that state as being more like MA, ME, VT etc and not like Florida.....

That used to be the thing about New Hampshire... thought they were more independent-minded, and didn't take to Bullshit.

My husbands family comes from the North East and New Hampshire!!! Many went to Dartmouth and his great grandfather was even the publisher of a large NH newspaper. Its just shocking to me that Romney, a lying sack of phony could fool these people....

You put any credibility in that University of New Hampshire poll that has Rmoney up by 9%?

Nate has NH as a 79.4% Obama win.

...and are willing to do that made me stress and misread the data.....

Phew....now I will just go back to trying to figure out how the rest of America could vote for Romney....

or what not.. VT wouldn't be as blue as it is if it weren't for all the crunchy, granola's moving in and taking up residence in the state (yes that's how Vermonters will talk about people who move in without originally being born in the state-- you will never be a real Vermonter)... LOL. Anyway, the state used to be very, very red (farmers and land and state right's issues mattered most).

Some of these original hicks are as racist as they come (and minorities are less than 1% of the state I believe). So, it was not unusual for the N- word to be thrown about by these idiots. On the other hand, it didn't matter that the one or 2 black kids in town were amazingly awesome and were on the "ins" with everyone. Very odd mix in NE of old and new.

Like when I was dating a mixed man in college (like Obama, his mom was white and dad was black--but his mom was the foreigner...LOL), anyway, it was met with very mixed reviews by different people... (I was in SC at this time). My college friends from NY in the city thought it was just wrong, wrong, wrong. My friends from VT were cool, my Grandmother had to make sure he was ok before she said ok (but she could say some of the most racist shit; not even realizing that it was offensive as all hell.. and she didn't mean anything badly by it or care what color anyone was). It took my mom the longest time to accept "gay and lesbian" anything... My Dad was the one who looked at her and said, "really, WTF do you care who's screwing who or who wants to get married, better than fucking a sheep or a cow like some of the inbred assholes around here do". She's evolved into, I don't care, let 2 people who want to marry, marry...

So, I think the "crunchy, granola" infusion was a good thing on people in VT.

NH, is crazy about taxes.. No taxes on anything... so property tax is incredibly high.. so Mitt is right up their ally.

I'm in NC and I find it hard to believe this state will go red! Who knows, and as far as all the polls go, there all over the place. 538, Princeton Election Consortium, Votamatic and even Realclearpolitics has the EV in the Presidents favor. Could some of it be...HYPE??? Remember, if it's on TV, it's BS!

All to satisfy their advertisers and to spike their ratings.

if Zomney steals the election.

Seems the wagering world knows a lot more than the TV pundits who are driving this close race (when in fact, its not) for ratings to sell their commericals. It is getting both camps excited.
Since August, the line was at:
Obama was 2/5 (you bet $5 and if Obama wins, you get $7 back, 40 percent profit)
Romney was 15/8 (you bet $8 and get back $23, profit of 187.5 percent)

It moved a lot the last week, all in favor of Obama.
Today, Obama dropped again to 2/9 from 1/4 yesterday (you bet $9 and get back $11, profit of 22.22%)
...Romney is at 10/3 (you bet $3 and get back $13, profit of 333.33%)

This betting pattern is about equal to what it was in 2008. This election will not be close, like the TV people, they are just hype and trying to make as much as they can from the ads on the air.

The over/under (a wager where you bet the number of electoral votes Obama will win) is at 299.5.

There is no such wager for Mitt, but there is a over/under in states won, at 25.5. There is no way he can attain the electoral votes with so few states given that most of his red states have low total of electoral votes.

Obama will win, the only question is by how much?


See: http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/Politics/US-Presidential-Election-t110000608

I just hope Dems don't take predictions and good polll #'s for advantage and get complacent. Especially in the hard hit areas where it may be a chore to vote -- we need the popular vote as well!

Complacency can kill us.

As for the MSM and their "too close to call" race....don't forget this is our "librul media"

First glance thought it was Romney was at 54% of votes. Not so.

It is the odds are 54%. Big difference!

Someone also pointed out is that Hispanics polling possibly putting too much weight on Hispanics as if they are all Miami Cubans.

Nate doesn't do the polling himself. He inputs what others do.

but you do realize that this all means nothing if the republicans steal Ohio , Which the evidence strongly suggest that they are doing right now!!!! NOW, not the day after election, should we be screaming at the top of our lungs in outrage to the media and justice department about this. I'm telling you they are going to steal this election if we don't get proactive.

...if we win both Virginia and New Hampshire, we won't need Ohio.

Even if we lose both Ohio and Virginia (heaven forbid!) we can still crack 270 by winning New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado. Nate Silver has Obama as the heavy favorite in all four of those states.

Don't get me wrong, Ohio is and should remain Ground Zero for us. However, we do have a back-up plan if the Buckeye State gets away from us.

He's the breakout star in this election cycle. I am hooked on checking out the 538 multiple times each day.

Here are 5 other excellent models I've been following.
Sam Wang @ the Princeton Election Consortium actually projected 2008 within 1 EV.
And if I remember correctly Intrade nailed it right on the money in 2008.


http://election.princeton.edu/

http://votamatic.org/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRNDlMakhhMGdGa0E#gid=3

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2012-electoral-college-map.html


http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php