Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

2016 Postmortem

SHRED

(28,136 posts) Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:08 PM Nov 2012

0

Intrade: Presidential Election 65.8% to 34.%

-

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/

--

8 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Intrade: Presidential Election 65.8% to 34.% (Original Post) SHRED Nov 2012 OP

You would think that it would be higher exboyfil Nov 2012 #1

I think some GOP idiots just are betting for Romney out of false hope. Logical Nov 2012 #2

I think Conservatives like using Intrade gravity Nov 2012 #3

Las Vegas odds were in Obama's favorite. These people don't mess around. EmeraldCityGrl Nov 2012 #4

Those odds do not reflect Obama as favored jberryhill Nov 2012 #5

OOPS! Reversed the odds will correct. EmeraldCityGrl Nov 2012 #6

Shucks, I was checking my bank balance jberryhill Nov 2012 #7

Intrade isn't a poll. It's people putting money in.. progressivebydesign Nov 2012 #8

exboyfil

(17,863 posts)

1. You would think that it would be higher

Reply to SHRED (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:25 PM

Nov 2012

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual

Betfair is predicting 76.6%. Nice arbritrage opportunity for those outside the U.S. or those set up with an offshore account.

Any inbalance reflects a bias towards the leader. EU money should be flowing into Intrade to bring these two to the same level.

Betting pools obviously reflect the desires and are not always rationale. Europeans really want Obama to win. Romney has near 50% support in the U.S. (even though I understand that Intrade is also illegal for U.S. residents).

Logical

(22,457 posts)

2. I think some GOP idiots just are betting for Romney out of false hope.

Reply to exboyfil (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:26 PM

Nov 2012

gravity

(4,157 posts)

3. I think Conservatives like using Intrade

Reply to SHRED (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:29 PM

Nov 2012

Ever since they totally failed the Supreme Court ACA decision, I always assumed Intrade to learn right.

I don't know if there is big money trying to manipulate it or just lots of delusional right wing traders, but it is an outlier compared to other betting sites.

EmeraldCityGrl

(4,310 posts)

4. Las Vegas odds were in Obama's favorite. These people don't mess around.

Reply to SHRED (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:41 PM

Nov 2012

Last edited Sun Nov 4, 2012, 01:22 PM - Edit history (1)

Obama 3:5 Romney 4:1 as of yesterday.

jberryhill

(62,444 posts)

5. Those odds do not reflect Obama as favored

Reply to EmeraldCityGrl (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:47 PM

Nov 2012

Who is paying 4:1 Obama? I'd like a piece of that.

EmeraldCityGrl

(4,310 posts)

6. OOPS! Reversed the odds will correct.

Reply to jberryhill (Reply #5)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 01:21 PM

Nov 2012

jberryhill

(62,444 posts)

7. Shucks, I was checking my bank balance

Reply to EmeraldCityGrl (Reply #6)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 01:54 PM

Nov 2012

progressivebydesign

(19,458 posts)

8. Intrade isn't a poll. It's people putting money in..

Reply to SHRED (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 01:56 PM

Nov 2012

and last week someone put 18k on Romney. It's just another mind-fuck that the billionaires are playing on you. It's not important.

Reply to this discussion

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Intrade: Presidential Ele...