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2016 Postmortem

Logical

(22,457 posts) Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:20 PM Nov 2012

15

Interesting Tweet from Nate Silver, Good news......

Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight
Since '88, POTUS candidates with a lead of 0.1 to 5 points in final likely-voter polling average in a state have won 30 of 33 times (91%).

3 replies

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Interesting Tweet from Nate Silver, Good news...... (Original Post) Logical Nov 2012 OP

But but...Bradley effect!!! blazeKing Nov 2012 #1

i wonder if 2 of the 3 were w. bullimiami Nov 2012 #2

Actually, I believe that 2 were Obama. IN and NC last time. Zynx Nov 2012 #3

blazeKing

(329 posts)

1. But but...Bradley effect!!!

Reply to Logical (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:23 PM

Nov 2012

bullimiami

(13,096 posts)

2. i wonder if 2 of the 3 were w.

Reply to Logical (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:27 PM

Nov 2012

Zynx

(21,328 posts)

3. Actually, I believe that 2 were Obama. IN and NC last time.

Reply to bullimiami (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:28 PM

Nov 2012

In Bush's case, he had leads in OH and FL.

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