2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWIRED - "In Defense of Nate Silver, Election Pollsters, and Statistical Predictions"
Nice article discussing the war between quants and mainstream political pundits. Reminds me of Moneyball.
http://www.wired.com/opinion/2012/11/why-predictions-and-statistical-models-are-necessary-and-good-for-democracy/
The pollsters tell us whats happening now, conservative columnist David Brooks told Politico, trashing Silver. When they start projecting, theyre getting into silly land. In the same article, MSNBCs Joe Scarborough added, And anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops, and microphones for the next 10 days because theyre jokes.
David Brooks is mistaken and Joe Scarborough is wrong. Because while pollsters cant project, statistical models can, and do and they do some predictions very well.
We rely on statistical models for many decisions every single day, including, crucially: weather, medicine, and pretty much any complex system in which theres an element of uncertainty to the outcome. In fact, these are the same methods by which scientists could tell Hurricane Sandy was about to hit the United States many days in advance.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)in 2010? Were Joe & David calling him out then, too?
ItsTheMediaStupid
(2,800 posts)Wired is not left leaning at all. It's mostly apolitical and maybe even has a little RW slant.
MADem
(135,425 posts)And Joe "Dead Woman In His Office" Scarborough, acolyte of Newt Gingrich, a guy who managed to translate the shortest period of time in Congress possible into a media career, despite his piggy eyes?
What's the upside of listening to these people? Noting their views? Paying ANY attention to them? They're carrying the waters of bitter, desperate, GOP desperation!
Nate Silver isn't a Democrat, not even close to a Democrat--that should fuck up their logic...but it doesn't. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/31/1152942/-Can-we-trust-Nate-Silver