2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPew Poll: Obama 50 (+3), Romney 47
48-45 without leaners
http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/04/obama-gains-edge-in-campaigns-final-days/
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)This is a VERY positive sign.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)They had a 51-43 poll that favored Obama . Then they had a 49-45 poll that favored Romney. Then they had a 47-47 poll that showed a tied race. *
Their last poll,immediately prior to this one, had all kinds of goodies in it for Romney but all I saw was a trend that favored Obama. Well, the trend continued.
*Did numbers from memory.
kansasobama
(609 posts)Remember Romney was +4...
Lightsource777
(78 posts)Have the pollsters been playing games? We will never know.
Tutonic
(2,522 posts)Down goes RMoney! Down goes Preiubs, Down goes Rove.
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)damnedifIknow
(3,183 posts)50-47 Obama.
michello
(132 posts)Lightsource777
(78 posts)Cicada
(4,533 posts)Pew may be the best poll. They spend a ton, $60,000 to $100,000 per poll. Kohut ran Gallup before he moved to Pew. Interestingly they once took actual registered voters from official registration lists, polled them, then checked to see if they actually had voted. They found that MOST of those polled who said they were NOT going to vote did in fact vote. And of course some who said they were going to vote did not vote. So polls where results limited to likely voters are screwed up. The best prediction would be to weight likely voters AND unlikely voters. The internal polls of campaigns do this but public polls limited only to likely voters do ot. So PEW finds O leading by a bigger margin with registered voters than with likely voters. The best guess should be between the two.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)krawhitham
(4,644 posts)Lightsource777
(78 posts)Check out that link and then look at the registered voter numbers for Romney in the last days of polling.
49 Obama to 42 Romney
The 42 number matches Romney's lowest support since the time after the Democratic convention.
All the gains he made after his 1st debate "performance art" have vanished. If the poll is to be believed.
blazeKing
(329 posts)"Nearly four-in-ten (39%) likely voters support Obama strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. A third (33%) of likely voters support Romney strongly, compared with 11% who back him moderately. In past elections, dating to 1960, the candidate with the higher percentage of strong support has usually gone on to win the popular vote."
So much for that enthusiasm gap eh?
"Obamas handling of the storms aftermath may have contributed to his improved showing. Fully 69% of all likely voters approve of the way Obama is handling the storms impact. Even a plurality of Romney supporters (46%) approve of Obamas handling of the situation; more important, so too do 63% of swing voters."
smorkingapple
(827 posts)Some of these national polls of 500 voters can easily show one thing but over 3800 sample size is hard to be off from the national electorate.
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)budkin
(6,703 posts)Romney was up big... so much for that! Work hard and we got this!