We have to be absolutely phenomenal with GOTV on election day, though.

Dem new registrations way up and unlikely early voters are way up plus incredibly strong African American turnout so I am still hopeful race will be much closer.

looks like

I didn't see you-gov numbers on that.

what is their model? Likely voters screens??? What's the sampling?? When did they sample? Cell phones?? Oversample independents?

GOTV. Dems have the numbers.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251171317

So, GOTV on election day!

impression is this isn't a good Poll for Romney. The sample was based on likely voters from 2010. North Carolina had a low turnout rate in the midterm elections. In fact, I didn't vote in 2010 either. Another thing is the 38 percent Obama is pulling from Independents. That is pretty high considering over 90 percent of Independents are white. If Obama gets 35 percent of the white vote, he is going to win North Carolina. Just to let you know, he only got 25 percent of the Independent vote in North Carolina in 2008.

He is going to win the Raleigh-Durham-Triangle area heavily. If anyone wants to know, this includes Raleigh and Wake County. He is going to win a lot more in the cHarlotte area because he has a huge lead in that area doing early voting. If he is leading now with 50-47 percent, that is pretty good. A lot of likely voters in the Durham area has not voted yet.

Now when you go into the Piedmont/Central area, we are going into rural North Carolina with the major urban area being Fayetteville/ Ft Bragg. They are showing 51 to 45 percent which is actually good. Obama is going to win heavily around Fayette ville but the rural counties even it out. That is why that area will be closer. You are also getting into less populated areas of North Carolina.

East North Carolina is the same thing as the Piedmont. There are a lot less big cities but it is close and that is good for Obama.

When you go into western North Carolina, that is the least populated area of the State with the lone urban island being Ashe ville. Ashe ville is probably where that 37 percent is coming from. You would expect Romney to win more in the Mountains. Another fact is over 60 percent of people in North Carolina has already voted according to early voting. I think this is what Messina is basing his numbers on. So this looks good for the President.

in NC.

The smaller red counties in NC, and there are many more red counties in NC than blue, usually only offer one or two early voting locations and one has to be in the geographical center of the county where the county courthouse is located(by state law.) Also, the courthouses aren't open on weekends. Many people in those mostly Pub counties just wait to election day so they don't have to travel as far to cast their ballots and there is also only minimal weekend voting available.

On the other hand, in the urban areas, there are many places to choose from to early vote. Guilford County alone, with Greensboro and High Point being the largest cities, had 20 or so early voting sites in addition to the centrally located courthouse and the early sites were open daily for 18 days. This allowed for 5 days of Saturday-Sunday voting. You'll get many Dems voting early in these scenarios and explains why Pubs dominate voting on Election Day.