He wont win any of those red states

Maybe IN... and maybe Akin could give us MO.

Not this year

Arizona is my favorite to flip.
I look for Georgia as a long shot.
I have heard others also throw South Carolina in there too.

I like that 347 number but it's still too low for me.
The power of a 15% to 20% Popular Vote Obama lead makes that number too low.

ELECTION SPOILER: Obama wins in a LANDSLIDE

I'm looking for a number closer to 400 like say 385 or something.
Obama got 365 Electoral Votes last time around with his 7% Popular Vote lead.
John Lucas

Who have you heard saying South Carolina? Who in their right mind makes that kind of insane prediction?

Who in their right mind makes that kind of insane prediction?
Well a poster who replied to that Landslide thread I put up.
Name was rbrnmw.

I love the doubt. I just love it.

In that same thread I respond to a poster named onenote who had a similar sentiment about me calling for Georgia.
I then break down the Presidential voting history of North Carolina all the way back from 1928 to 2008 to show how Obama turning North Carolina his way was unprecedented.
Even Bill Clinton couldn't flip that state. Neither time.

Read it for yourself & tell me what you think.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251130631#post82
John Lucas

Obama won by .3

It wasnt a shocking result. The polls showed that it would be an absolute tossup.

You're talking about a state like South Carolina, and for that matter Georgia. If the Obama team thought they had a chance, dont you think they would be spending any time at all there?

How did Obama pull off Iowa of all places?
How did Obama switch Ohio?
How did Obama get Indiana?
How did Obama pull New Mexico?

TURNOUT is what's gonna flip those states.
And look all over this forum for people posting videos & pics of people standing in lines literally miles long waiting patiently to vote.
Those people are mostly Obama voters.

Dewey once defeated Truman according to the polls, remember that.
And Carter would defeat Reagan according to those polls too.
I use those polls for toilet paper.

There will be major state-flipping surprises on Election Day just you wait & see.
John Lucas

I live in South Carolina ... no way will a majority of these people be voting for the President. Not AZ either, at least not this year. Probably not NC as well; FL very close. BUT, also no way Obama will lose the election. Four more years! Just vote!!

We'll win and do well, but getting FL, NC and VA is a real stretch.

FL and NC will be tough.

They are close and the GOTV is strong with this one.

Florida could definitely go blue. People are really upset about Republicans trying to suppress voting.

There will be a backlash to the Republican Malfeasance.

You know where.

Hee hee hee...
John Lucas

P.S.: Still too low though.

but a sweep of every single swing state is something I have a hard time believing will happen. Florida and NC will be tough and Colorado isn't exactly a safe bet either(if the polls are to be trusted). I think Obama will win, but it'll be because of OH and VA.

Though I think NC and Florida are a real stretch.

They said it is never polled because of laws and one was finally conducted for Mourdock and Donnelly. Donnelly is double digits ahead so maybe that might help Obama. He did win it in 2008 afterall.

State do-not-call? How did the polls get around the law for polling Donnelly/Mourdock?

No robocalls are allowed. So there can be no robocall polls unless a real live person asks first if the person will do an automated poll. And there was one other thing that I can't remember that prevents easy polling in Indiana like in other states. So this most recent poll is the first in months.

I tried to search online but couldn't find it. I know Rachel talked about it Thurs or Friday on her show. She said nothing about the state going for Obama, but that's just a thought I had since it hasn't been polled for presidential election at all and it went to Obama in 2008.

Thanks for posting about it. I'll dig through the new tv.msnbc.com site and see if I can find the segment. I know from work that there are both federal and state do-not-call lists (implying that states can impose statewide restrictions specific to their residents in addition to the federal ones), but never looked into what that entails.

Appreciate that heads up!

I thought it was interesting but was in the kitchen and couldn't hear really well. That's why I can't remember the second thing Rachel said regarding Indiana polling laws.

I might look around a bit more. But if Tuesday comes and Obama wins, then I guess I'm not really concerned about Indiana polling

It was on her website under weird state election rules.

It's what I said, there is a law in Indiana where not automated dialing isn't allowed. Either the reciever of the call needed to give permission in advance or a live person must call and get permission to be on the list for automated calls. So it's very expensive to conduct polls in the state of Indiana. The one that just was done on the senate race was all manual and live person.

Nationally, Indiana isn't polled because of this law.

I know in the grand scheme, this is a trivial issue, but I greatly appreciate having this knowledge/information.

Hope I am wrong! I'd much rather see your map.

I honestly thought NC was a goner this year. WOW!!!!

those showing up winning Ohio, etc.

Ambitious! An Obama win, but cant see him winning North carolina!

I think that's a bit too optimistic. I still think Rmoney will pull out a win in NC and FL. However, I believe Obama will win OH, WI, IA, NV, and NH. VA and CO are toss-ups. Barring an upset in PA, MI, or MN, Obama will have well over the 270 electoral votes he'll need to win a second term.

I was registered as a Republican for many years. I know others who are just as disgusted as I am by what has been done to the Republican Party. It was not founded on the principles it now espouses.

I do not believe The White Male Lie. More Republicans will vote for Obama than anyone thinks.

...and I've been wondering why the hell they haven't come over to the Democratic Party where they BELONG.

But it looks like if Obama can pick up a few more votes in the final tally...

Romney might hit the magic percentage:

47%



From huff post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/07/who-won-the-popular-vote-2012_n_2087038.html