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onenote

(42,703 posts)
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 03:43 PM Jun 2016

Why is losing California viewed by some as a game changer

if at the same time Clinton wins large in New Jersey and New Mexico and nails down a majority of the pledged delegates?

Is there something about California that makes winning there more important than winning in New Mexico or New Jersey? It doesn't matter whether its Clinton or Sanders that is the nominee -- the Democratic nominee will win California, so that can't be it (plus it wouldn't be the first time that the nominee lost California or lost a state or two in the final week of the primaries, while winning other states).

So what's the deal, other than more false hope and messaging by those who want something to cling to?

33 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Why is losing California viewed by some as a game changer (Original Post) onenote Jun 2016 OP
It shouldn't be. The only thing that matters is the delegate count. MineralMan Jun 2016 #1
I agree. But there seems to be no stopping the meme that CA could be a game changer. onenote Jun 2016 #2
You forgot the superdelegates though Reiyuki Jun 2016 #4
Yeah, and I'm sure that 475 delegates is just trivial lagomorph777 Jun 2016 #5
all Bernie needs to do is win 95% of the vote in Cali and he's the nominee. geek tragedy Jun 2016 #11
OK smarty, here is Bernie-math (tastes just like real math): lagomorph777 Jun 2016 #14
What is your analytical, rational basis for concluding he's got a good chance of winning 67% of the geek tragedy Jun 2016 #17
I didn't say it's likely, but it's a little more realistic than 95% in a single state lagomorph777 Jun 2016 #18
at this point we're comparing the likelihood of a meteor strike vs an invasion from outer space nt geek tragedy Jun 2016 #19
Neither candidate will get all of those 475. MineralMan Jun 2016 #12
Thanks for a realistic view of the math lagomorph777 Jun 2016 #20
I've been watching the delegate counts since Iowa and New Hampshire MineralMan Jun 2016 #21
the second place candidate is looking for any pretext to continue geek tragedy Jun 2016 #3
I like the idea of CA joining the rest of the West Coast and Pacific Rim States in the Bernie column Bluenorthwest Jun 2016 #6
Me too. frylock Jun 2016 #25
Clinton won 6 of the last 9 in '08, and it didn't matter. This is Bernie saying he's special again. CrowCityDem Jun 2016 #7
It will show that socialists can run in California and win. Cheese Sandwich Jun 2016 #8
... Kinda. Agschmid Jun 2016 #10
yes I am sure it matters to all the repubs crossing over to pump up bernie's totals. of course if msongs Jun 2016 #22
:tinfoilhat: Cheese Sandwich Jun 2016 #23
California seems to be where Bernie is spending his energy. Agschmid Jun 2016 #9
Not sure, given that Obama lost California in 2008. Nye Bevan Jun 2016 #13
Math has a Hillary bias uponit7771 Jun 2016 #15
Same reason the MSM isn't stressing that for Democrats Retrograde Jun 2016 #16
It will help to underscore how weak she is as a candidate. frylock Jun 2016 #24
How so? Buzz cook Jun 2016 #27
Sure, in a binary world. frylock Jun 2016 #29
But it is a binary world Buzz cook Jun 2016 #30
I'm not sad. It's Friday, I'm meeting some peeps tonight at a local brewery.. frylock Jun 2016 #32
The state of Washington says you're welcome Buzz cook Jun 2016 #33
It sells copy rock Jun 2016 #26
it's part of the bernie math where your find the information to support your conclusion MariaThinks Jun 2016 #28
Because the news media needs to fill 24 hours with something. nt sufrommich Jun 2016 #31

MineralMan

(146,308 posts)
1. It shouldn't be. The only thing that matters is the delegate count.
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 03:46 PM
Jun 2016

California will allocate its delegates proportionally, as all states do. Both candidates will get delegates. We only have to look at the totals, really.

California is no more important than any other state. It has a primary and then allocates its pledged delegates. It gets more delegates, because it has the highest population of any state.

One person; one vote.

onenote

(42,703 posts)
2. I agree. But there seems to be no stopping the meme that CA could be a game changer.
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 03:54 PM
Jun 2016

At least until it turns out that its not.

Reiyuki

(96 posts)
4. You forgot the superdelegates though
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 03:56 PM
Jun 2016

Voter: One person; one vote.
Super: One person; 20,000 votes (or more)


I'd be satisfied if the only positive thing to come from all the primary mess is if superdelegates get disbanded for future elections.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
14. OK smarty, here is Bernie-math (tastes just like real math):
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 04:15 PM
Jun 2016

Bernie has 1501 pledged (i.e. legitimate) delegates. TO get to a majority of PDs (4051/2, or 2026), he needs another 525 delegates, which is 67% of the remaining pool of PDs. I don't give a damn which states he pulls them from, but clearly it's silly to pretend they should all come from CA.

With a majority of PDs, the party will dig an even deeper hole for itself if the unpledged delegates (or in slang, "superdelegates&quot decide to honor their back-room deals with Hillary instead of their duty to the country to defeat Trump. By whatever you think motivates them (scruples, money, thirst for victory, support of voters in their states, whose votes they may also want), smart PDs will go along with their states, or with the national democratic will of voters. Or it's bye-bye GE for sure.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
17. What is your analytical, rational basis for concluding he's got a good chance of winning 67% of the
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 04:22 PM
Jun 2016

vote in California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Puerto Rico, DC etc?

"I really want it to happen" does not count.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
18. I didn't say it's likely, but it's a little more realistic than 95% in a single state
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 04:25 PM
Jun 2016

Actually, make that 110%.

And it does require an understanding of the difference between "mathematically impossible" and "quite improbable," something most MSM talking heads and some here don't seem to grasp.

MineralMan

(146,308 posts)
12. Neither candidate will get all of those 475.
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 04:12 PM
Jun 2016

They will be divided proportionally to the vote in CA. If it's a tie, they'll each get about 237 pledged delegates, and so on, depending on how the voting turns out. I don't expect a big margin either way, so there won't be much of a change in the lead Hillary has already built up.

Instead, NJ and Puerto Rico will probably give her a net increase in her pledged delegate lead on Tuesday.

In fact, on Tuesday, she will gain the majority of pledged delegate, increasing her total to over 2026. That is the true point at which she clinches the nomination. Not New Jersey.

The other four primaries that day award only a small number of delegates, but those will also be allocated proprotionally to the votes in those states. Hillary might win in New Mexico, but will probably lose in the other three by some margin. It won't matter. By then end of the counting, she will have a majority of pledged delegates and it will be Game Over. The Super delegates will vote for whoever has the majority.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
20. Thanks for a realistic view of the math
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 04:26 PM
Jun 2016

and if we can agree to wait til 'the end of the counting' as you seem prepared to do, it will go a long way toward making peace.

MineralMan

(146,308 posts)
21. I've been watching the delegate counts since Iowa and New Hampshire
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 04:29 PM
Jun 2016

When there is a majority of pledged delegates, it's over, but not until then. That is almost certain to happen on June 7, and to increase on June 14.

The Super delegates will not override a majority of pledged delegates. That would be unheard of and thus unlikely to an enormous degree.

I've always said that I would vote for and campaign for the Democratic nominee, regardless of who wins. I'm a Democrat.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
3. the second place candidate is looking for any pretext to continue
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 03:54 PM
Jun 2016

riding the Sore Loser Express to the convention.

winning California is his pretext.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
6. I like the idea of CA joining the rest of the West Coast and Pacific Rim States in the Bernie column
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 03:59 PM
Jun 2016

nt

 

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)
8. It will show that socialists can run in California and win.
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 04:02 PM
Jun 2016

It shows the largest state is ready to vote for democratic socialism

The right to a job. A living wage. A right to health care and education.

These things matter.

msongs

(67,406 posts)
22. yes I am sure it matters to all the repubs crossing over to pump up bernie's totals. of course if
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 04:29 PM
Jun 2016

he loses in CA it will be all because of fraud, cheating, rigging, vote suppression, people who cant figure out a ballot etc

Nye Bevan

(25,406 posts)
13. Not sure, given that Obama lost California in 2008.
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 04:14 PM
Jun 2016

Should Hillary be kicking herself for not claiming that California is so special or something that she should have been awarded the nomination?

Retrograde

(10,136 posts)
16. Same reason the MSM isn't stressing that for Democrats
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 04:19 PM
Jun 2016

all the state delegates are awarded proportionally, so "win" or "lose" doesn't mean the same as it does in the general presidential election? Because they want to keep the horserace going so they can get more viewers and hence more ad revenue (which is why they pushed Trump, IMHO)? Because they want to stir up drama at the convention?

I think, based on nothing than my own opinion, that California will be close, with Clinton and Sanders getting roughly equal numbers of delegates. Even that will be viewed as a super win for Sanders because he wasn't expected to do well as little as 2 months ago.

Buzz cook

(2,471 posts)
27. How so?
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 04:55 PM
Jun 2016

If she wins, by definition she's the better candidate. If he looses, by definition Bernie is the weaker candidate.

frylock

(34,825 posts)
29. Sure, in a binary world.
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 05:03 PM
Jun 2016

Hillary staggering across the finish line with the threat of a possible indictment hanging over her head doesn't exactly project strength.

Buzz cook

(2,471 posts)
30. But it is a binary world
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 05:17 PM
Jun 2016

Only two candidates, only one winner.

Clinton will get to the convention with a greater lead of Sanders than Obama had over her in 2008. That's not staggerring.

And after Sanders endorses Clinton she will have the support of an even greater majority.

Sorry you're sad. But don't worry there won't be an indictment, so brighten up.

frylock

(34,825 posts)
32. I'm not sad. It's Friday, I'm meeting some peeps tonight at a local brewery..
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 05:20 PM
Jun 2016

and James Comey will be issuing his recommendation for indictment here in a few short weeks. Life is good.

Buzz cook

(2,471 posts)
33. The state of Washington says you're welcome
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 05:26 PM
Jun 2016

We're glad we pioneered craft breweries so you could have a good Friday.

I still think you'll be pleased when no indictments are issued.

MariaThinks

(2,495 posts)
28. it's part of the bernie math where your find the information to support your conclusion
Fri Jun 3, 2016, 05:03 PM
Jun 2016

regardless of the facts.

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