2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhy is losing California viewed by some as a game changer
if at the same time Clinton wins large in New Jersey and New Mexico and nails down a majority of the pledged delegates?
Is there something about California that makes winning there more important than winning in New Mexico or New Jersey? It doesn't matter whether its Clinton or Sanders that is the nominee -- the Democratic nominee will win California, so that can't be it (plus it wouldn't be the first time that the nominee lost California or lost a state or two in the final week of the primaries, while winning other states).
So what's the deal, other than more false hope and messaging by those who want something to cling to?
MineralMan
(146,308 posts)California will allocate its delegates proportionally, as all states do. Both candidates will get delegates. We only have to look at the totals, really.
California is no more important than any other state. It has a primary and then allocates its pledged delegates. It gets more delegates, because it has the highest population of any state.
One person; one vote.
onenote
(42,703 posts)At least until it turns out that its not.
Reiyuki
(96 posts)Voter: One person; one vote.
Super: One person; 20,000 votes (or more)
I'd be satisfied if the only positive thing to come from all the primary mess is if superdelegates get disbanded for future elections.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)compared to 126 in NJ, right?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Think he'll do it?
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Bernie has 1501 pledged (i.e. legitimate) delegates. TO get to a majority of PDs (4051/2, or 2026), he needs another 525 delegates, which is 67% of the remaining pool of PDs. I don't give a damn which states he pulls them from, but clearly it's silly to pretend they should all come from CA.
With a majority of PDs, the party will dig an even deeper hole for itself if the unpledged delegates (or in slang, "superdelegates" decide to honor their back-room deals with Hillary instead of their duty to the country to defeat Trump. By whatever you think motivates them (scruples, money, thirst for victory, support of voters in their states, whose votes they may also want), smart PDs will go along with their states, or with the national democratic will of voters. Or it's bye-bye GE for sure.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)vote in California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Puerto Rico, DC etc?
"I really want it to happen" does not count.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Actually, make that 110%.
And it does require an understanding of the difference between "mathematically impossible" and "quite improbable," something most MSM talking heads and some here don't seem to grasp.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)MineralMan
(146,308 posts)They will be divided proportionally to the vote in CA. If it's a tie, they'll each get about 237 pledged delegates, and so on, depending on how the voting turns out. I don't expect a big margin either way, so there won't be much of a change in the lead Hillary has already built up.
Instead, NJ and Puerto Rico will probably give her a net increase in her pledged delegate lead on Tuesday.
In fact, on Tuesday, she will gain the majority of pledged delegate, increasing her total to over 2026. That is the true point at which she clinches the nomination. Not New Jersey.
The other four primaries that day award only a small number of delegates, but those will also be allocated proprotionally to the votes in those states. Hillary might win in New Mexico, but will probably lose in the other three by some margin. It won't matter. By then end of the counting, she will have a majority of pledged delegates and it will be Game Over. The Super delegates will vote for whoever has the majority.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)and if we can agree to wait til 'the end of the counting' as you seem prepared to do, it will go a long way toward making peace.
MineralMan
(146,308 posts)When there is a majority of pledged delegates, it's over, but not until then. That is almost certain to happen on June 7, and to increase on June 14.
The Super delegates will not override a majority of pledged delegates. That would be unheard of and thus unlikely to an enormous degree.
I've always said that I would vote for and campaign for the Democratic nominee, regardless of who wins. I'm a Democrat.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)riding the Sore Loser Express to the convention.
winning California is his pretext.
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)nt
frylock
(34,825 posts)The West is the Best!
CrowCityDem
(2,348 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)It shows the largest state is ready to vote for democratic socialism
The right to a job. A living wage. A right to health care and education.
These things matter.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)But also "duh" California is one of the more liberal states... So.
msongs
(67,406 posts)he loses in CA it will be all because of fraud, cheating, rigging, vote suppression, people who cant figure out a ballot etc
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Guess that's part of it.
Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)Should Hillary be kicking herself for not claiming that California is so special or something that she should have been awarded the nomination?
uponit7771
(90,339 posts)Retrograde
(10,136 posts)all the state delegates are awarded proportionally, so "win" or "lose" doesn't mean the same as it does in the general presidential election? Because they want to keep the horserace going so they can get more viewers and hence more ad revenue (which is why they pushed Trump, IMHO)? Because they want to stir up drama at the convention?
I think, based on nothing than my own opinion, that California will be close, with Clinton and Sanders getting roughly equal numbers of delegates. Even that will be viewed as a super win for Sanders because he wasn't expected to do well as little as 2 months ago.
frylock
(34,825 posts)Yeah yeah, 3 million more votes.
If she wins, by definition she's the better candidate. If he looses, by definition Bernie is the weaker candidate.
frylock
(34,825 posts)Hillary staggering across the finish line with the threat of a possible indictment hanging over her head doesn't exactly project strength.
Buzz cook
(2,471 posts)Only two candidates, only one winner.
Clinton will get to the convention with a greater lead of Sanders than Obama had over her in 2008. That's not staggerring.
And after Sanders endorses Clinton she will have the support of an even greater majority.
Sorry you're sad. But don't worry there won't be an indictment, so brighten up.
frylock
(34,825 posts)and James Comey will be issuing his recommendation for indictment here in a few short weeks. Life is good.
Buzz cook
(2,471 posts)We're glad we pioneered craft breweries so you could have a good Friday.
I still think you'll be pleased when no indictments are issued.
rock
(13,218 posts)Gotta keep the voters as low information as they can.
MariaThinks
(2,495 posts)regardless of the facts.