2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders Has Entirely Evaporated Hillary Clinton’s Lead in California, NBC Poll Shows
Bernie Sanders is now trailing Hillary Clinton by only two points among registered Democrats, according to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll of California voters, putting the two Democratic candidates at a statistical tie.
The poll, which surveyed 557 likely Democratic voters by landline and cell phone from May 29-31, found that 47 percent of Californias likely Democratic primary voters preferred Sanders, while just 49 percent supported Clinton. The margin of error was 4.2 percentage points.
When expanded to include all potential Democratic voters, including those marked with No Party Preference and comprising 991 voters, Sanders leads by one point. Furthermore, while Sanders led the pack in the usual categories that favor him independents (68-26), those younger than 45 (66-30), and first-time voters (72-28) he was also chosen by a majority of Latino respondents, as Sanders was chosen by 49 percent of likely voters compared to 46 percent for Clinton.
The poll also showed that Sanders maintains a larger margin of victory against Donald Trump than the former Secretary of State, reflecting trends in other states polls.
Voters responses may have been influenced by the recent release of the State Department Inspector Generals report over the use of Hillary Clintons private email server. As US Uncut previously reported, the report caught Clinton in several lies, and an AP fact check confirmed that Clinton deliberately misled the public on the purpose and security of her server. Politifact researched Clintons claim that her email server was allowed and rated it as False.
With just six days until Californians cast their ballots, the poll could signal a shift in momentum towards Sen. Sanders, who has been barnstorming the state for several weeks. Should the Vermont senator win the Golden State by a convincing margin and win a majority of Californias 475 pledged delegates, he could surge into the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia this summer with a convincing argument to swing superdelegate votes his way. One argument Sanders has consistently made is that he polls better than his primary opponent against presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump which Politifact backed up as mostly true.
While Clinton only leads Sanders by 272 pledged delegates, the former Secretary of State leads Sen. Sanders in superdelegates by a 543-44 margin. Most of Clintons superdelegates committed to supporting her at least six months before the first primaries and caucuses. The Democratic nomination will likely come down to superdelegate votes at the partys national convention, which will be held in late July.
http://usuncut.com/politics/poll-california-bernie-clinton/
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)So weak.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)Surely Hillary can win without all those voters, right?
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)discussion to have on that shows that your support for your candidate has blinded you to common sense.
frylock
(34,825 posts)They haven't had a chance to vote yet either.
msongs
(67,405 posts)Renew Deal
(81,859 posts)KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)Even if she wins only by two, she will clinch easily.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Jitter65
(3,089 posts)And I hope the Democratic party can recover.
Hillary has made some bonehead errors but voting for Iraq war was made into something that it was't. She didn't do any less than many good Democrats did. To blame her instead of Bush wrong.
Libya was more on her than Iraq. But even on Libya, she was siding with the majority of allies who saw great danger in allowing Gaddafi to continue with his brutal attacks on some. (I didn't agree that he was as bad as they say).
Nonetheless, her email decision is being blown way out of proportion. Had there been no Benghazi multiple investigations that would have gone completely unnoticed because no harm or security was breeched. Many Fed keep personal e-mail at work but they don't have private servers but some do know how to access non-Fed servers.
If she can withstand these recent allegations and attacks as she has done for the past 40 years she will make a great President, I believe. But Bernie has scorched the earth before her and his supporters will be worse to her than the GOP Congress was to President Obama.
frylock
(34,825 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)StevieM
(10,500 posts)among Latinos in California. And that makes me skeptical of the entire poll.
Besides, we saw this before in Nevada. We were told that he was leading among Latinos there and that certainly turned out not to be correct.
Txbluedog
(1,128 posts)And will still be the leader in pledged delegates (781*40= 312) which gives her the pledged delegate majority
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Response to pdsimdars (Original post)
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senz
(11,945 posts)This is why the AP decided to call the race for Clinton the night before California and five other primaries.
The Clinton campaign must have been in a complete panic.
I hope this stunt backfires hard.