2016 Postmortem

jezebel

(1,772 posts) Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:07 PM Nov 2012

Does it make sense in PPP's polls today that Obama is doing better in Va than in NH or Ia?

Obama is up 4 in Virginia
and 2 in both Iowa and NH. I thought the expectation was that Obama would hold Iowa and New Hampshire, but that Virginia was going to possibly go to Romney?

11 replies

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Does it make sense in PPP's polls today that Obama is doing better in Va than in NH or Ia? (Original Post) jezebel Nov 2012 OP

Yes, VA matches the US tbennett76 Nov 2012 #1

Shouldn't the President be doing better than +2 in Ia and NH though if he is doing that good in Va? jezebel Nov 2012 #3

No IA overwhelmingly white and Romney has some popularity in NH smorkingapple Nov 2012 #5

Other polls have Obama up in VA, too. Obama actually did better in VA than Ohio in 2008 WI_DEM Nov 2012 #2

Lot more white people in those two states MadBadger Nov 2012 #4

MD and DC folks have been working our collective ass off in VA. Just got back from VA-Beach over Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2012 #6

ETA: One more thing about VA voters. Northern VA and Prince William counties have voters with very Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2012 #7

Obama leading in Virginia thanks to 56/43 advantage with women, 92/8 with African Americans VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #8

Virginia is the one to watch for years to come. kaiserhog Nov 2012 #9

I agree with you. Their other polls don't make sense in context. Drunken Irishman Nov 2012 #10

Depends. Did it include early voting? grantcart Nov 2012 #11

tbennett76

(223 posts)

1. Yes, VA matches the US

Reply to jezebel (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:09 PM

Nov 2012

demographically. 51-47 matches the popular vote total IMO Tuesday. (52-47)

jezebel

(1,772 posts)

3. Shouldn't the President be doing better than +2 in Ia and NH though if he is doing that good in Va?

Reply to tbennett76 (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:11 PM

Nov 2012

smorkingapple

(827 posts)

5. No IA overwhelmingly white and Romney has some popularity in NH

Reply to jezebel (Reply #3)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:13 PM

Nov 2012

Not surprising at all.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)

2. Other polls have Obama up in VA, too. Obama actually did better in VA than Ohio in 2008

Reply to jezebel (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:11 PM

Nov 2012

The state has a very large and enthusiastic African-American vote and a strong Democratic vote in the DC suburbs. Four-point lead seems reasonable.

MadBadger

(24,089 posts)

4. Lot more white people in those two states

Reply to jezebel (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:12 PM

Nov 2012

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)

6. MD and DC folks have been working our collective ass off in VA. Just got back from VA-Beach over

Reply to jezebel (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:15 PM

Nov 2012

the weekend. Today I spent some time in Fredericksburg in Prince William, CO. What a wonderful day! Tuesday, I go back to VA with bus loads of MD and DCers to GOTV!!

I told my Virginian brothers and sisters that I feel good about VA.

I'm worried about OH due to the voter suppression and those machines. I'm not worried about VA because it doesn't appear that the suppression is at all severe!

Plus, African American and Hispanic voters are FIRED UP!!! I've never seen so many inspired people. Better than 2008.

I'm very confident about VA, and I think Robme and Lyin' Ryan have conceded the state.

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)

7. ETA: One more thing about VA voters. Northern VA and Prince William counties have voters with very

Reply to jezebel (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:16 PM

Nov 2012

high education, income, and are very informed by virtue of being near D.C. There's also a great many federal workers, so Robme going after public sector jobs is very well.

VirginiaTarheel

(823 posts)

8. Obama leading in Virginia thanks to 56/43 advantage with women, 92/8 with African Americans

Reply to jezebel (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:21 PM

Nov 2012

PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls

Key for Obama in Virginia- holding Romney to 58/40 lead with whites, less than we're seeing nationall

kaiserhog

(167 posts)

9. Virginia is the one to watch for years to come.

Reply to jezebel (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 10:35 PM

Nov 2012

If it goes blue, she presents big problems for the Repubs.

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

10. I agree with you. Their other polls don't make sense in context.

Reply to jezebel (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:41 PM

Nov 2012

If Obama is only winning Iowa and New Hampshire by two, he's not up five in Ohio and Virginia by four. That just makes absolutely no sense. So, some of these polls are off ... and I suspect it's probably the Ohio and Virginia ones. I'd wager Obama is up no more than two in Virginia and 3 in Ohio. That would make more sense with narrower Iowa and NH results.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

11. Depends. Did it include early voting?

Reply to jezebel (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 12:02 AM

Nov 2012

Obama has a big lead in EV and a 2% lead in likely voters who haven't voted would be about right.

He is up about 6% overall.

VA is one of the few states where Sandy might make the difference.

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