2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver update!
306.4 EV85.5% CHANCE OF WINNING
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/
Paths to the White House: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html
Check out that link! It is fantastic!
Hissyspit
(45,788 posts)Polldancer2012
(88 posts)He could have played it safe all the way and called it 53/47 or smthg. But at 85%... If he's wrong he goes off to pursue a career as a bartender/part time Pilates instructor.
Nyt must have assured him they've got his back.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Many of the websites like his, which run the numbers and come up with odds, have Obama at 95%+. Some even have him as high as 99%. Nate Silver's 85.5% is one of the lowest odds we see for Obama.
Cha
(297,692 posts)know nothing about?
WillyT
(72,631 posts)Unlike The MSM...
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)Obama leads in every swing state polling except NC and FL.
He leads or is tied in every national poll.
85.5% chance of a win might actually be conservative
courseofhistory
(801 posts)keeping track on election night as the state winner is announced. All you have to do is click on the state icon at the upper part of the page as Obama wins them and then the total EV for that state is added to the total.
[img][/img]
http://apps.npr.org/swing-state-scorecard/
longship
(40,416 posts)Bookmarked for Tuesday.
Wish there was one for Senate and House.
R&
Polldancer2012
(88 posts)Will deffo be one of my open tabs tues night