Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

2016 Postmortem

dogindia

(1,345 posts) Mon Nov 5, 2012, 02:25 PM Nov 2012

4

Here is Princeton...Obama at 303

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

4 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Here is Princeton...Obama at 303 (Original Post) dogindia Nov 2012 OP

Princeton has actually shown some slippage for Obama... regnaD kciN Nov 2012 #1

At 10Am it was down to +2.28 zebe83 Nov 2012 #2

He doesn't use national polls MSMITH33156 Nov 2012 #4

Sam explains it on his blog... Charlotte Little Nov 2012 #3

regnaD kciN

(26,045 posts)

1. Princeton has actually shown some slippage for Obama...

Reply to dogindia (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 02:31 PM

Nov 2012

PEC had the meta-margin at O+2.96 about a day ago; now, it's down to +2.38. Perhaps the "Sandy bump" subsiding?

zebe83

(143 posts)

2. At 10Am it was down to +2.28

Reply to regnaD kciN (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 02:32 PM

Nov 2012

Perhaps the movement in the Rasmussen National poll.

MSMITH33156

(879 posts)

4. He doesn't use national polls

Reply to zebe83 (Reply #2)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 02:41 PM

Nov 2012

but he also doesn't adjust for bias, so the Rasmussen Ohio poll showing it tied probably played in a bit. The important thing is to not focus on the meta-margin as a number, but to look at this:

And read his description:

The yellow zone is a “watch zone” that shows a combination of the 95% random-movement confidence interval and the 95% gray-zone confidence interval. The November outcome is nearly certain to be within this range.

There will be statistical fluctuations all the time and we will see that bounce up and down. But if that range stays above 270, goodnight Romney.

Charlotte Little

(658 posts)

3. Sam explains it on his blog...

Reply to dogindia (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 02:39 PM

Nov 2012

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/05/dont-just-watch-the-ev-estimator/

You just have to look past the map and the numbers. In fact, Sam writes a great deal on there that shouldn't be overlooked. In 2008, the PEC model nailed the election minus 1 EV. I'm actually relieved to see it fall closer to 300 as we get closer to tomorrow, as I think that is more realistic. A win is a win is win as far as I'm concerned.

Reply to this discussion

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»Here is Princeton...Obama...