2016 Postmortem

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts) Mon Nov 5, 2012, 03:47 PM Nov 2012

Halperin and Cilizza finally stop pretending it's too close to call

http://thepage.time.com/2012/11/05/midday-state-of-the-race/

CHRIS CILLIZZA: Well, we’re almost there, Andrea. I think the state of the race is that President Obama President Obama retains a, and this has been the case for a while now, he retains more paths to 270 electoral votes than does Mitt Romney.

MARK HALPERIN:The President’s team is unambiguously more confident about winning election than the Romney team. Unambiguous from David Plouffe, David Axelrod, Jim Messina on down to the lowest levels of the campaign, the junior staffers. They all say they’re going to win. And they say some of these states we’re talking about as battlegrounds are in the bag for the President. And because of their groung game and because of the public and private polling. They say they’ve put a very rigorous screen on their polling, a very conservative screen and that, worst case, they will win enough states narrowly to get to 270. Best case, they’ll do, as Vice President Biden told Chris Matthews yesterday, substantially better than that and get over 300 electoral votes.

CHRIS CILLIZZA: Andrea, in Ohio in particular, I think we may go back and deconstruct this whole election based on Mitt Romney, if he winds up losing, and his inability to get over the top in a state that, demographically, should be a state that favors him. ... And number two, the auto bailout is popular and Mitt Romney is taking on water on it. If he wasn’t, he wouldn’t have put up, as you mentioned, that ad about Jeep. So, I think we may go all the way back and all these months and all the things Mark and I have written and all the things we’ve talked about and say, “You know, he just couldn’t get over the top in a state that, on paper, he should have.” And that may be the whole election, right there.

15 replies

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Halperin and Cilizza finally stop pretending it's too close to call (Original Post) geek tragedy Nov 2012 OP

Interesting about Halperin's knowledge on the internal polling. Jennicut Nov 2012 #1

The one thing that makes Halperin ever worth reading is the fact geek tragedy Nov 2012 #2

per the Romney camp - they are now praying Coexist Nov 2012 #3

And an increased white turnout. Jennicut Nov 2012 #6

Considering Romney's team lives on Bullshit Mountain. geek tragedy Nov 2012 #7

That was the most important thing MSMITH33156 Nov 2012 #5

Its "Dick" Halperin, Dick. Don't know how many times I have to make it clear!!! grantcart Nov 2012 #4

f--ck those 2 tools... Tenleytown Nov 2012 #8

No point in promoting "horse race" anymore budkin Nov 2012 #9

Lots of pundits who said "too close to call" before today will be calling the race for the President Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #10

Why was Ohio a demographic natural for Romney? Just cause he's white? smorkingapple Nov 2012 #11

It's typically a Republican-friendly demographic. geek tragedy Nov 2012 #12

Romney lost the race in the summer DrToast Nov 2012 #13

About Ohio: Everyone keeps forgetting that they fought back against the anti-unionists lindysalsagal Nov 2012 #14

well they have to save face.. DCBob Nov 2012 #15

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)

1. Interesting about Halperin's knowledge on the internal polling.

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 04:01 PM

Nov 2012

Even with a tighter screen, they get to 270.

I hope Joel Benenson (Obama's pollster) is correct. The current public polling assumes he is.

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

2. The one thing that makes Halperin ever worth reading is the fact

Reply to Jennicut (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 04:02 PM

Nov 2012

that insiders actually tell him stuff.

Romney's internal polling is based on wishful thinking, because they know if their vision of decreased Latino and youth vote doesn't come to pass, they're toast. So they go with assumptions under which they can win.

Coexist

(24,542 posts)

3. per the Romney camp - they are now praying

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #2)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 04:05 PM

Nov 2012

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)

6. And an increased white turnout.

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #2)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 04:11 PM

Nov 2012

If Obama's camp seems more confident then Mitten's camp to Halperin, that tells me a lot....

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

7. Considering Romney's team lives on Bullshit Mountain.

Reply to Jennicut (Reply #6)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 04:13 PM

Nov 2012

If they're questioning their own ability to win, they're toast.

MSMITH33156

(879 posts)

5. That was the most important thing

Reply to Jennicut (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 04:11 PM

Nov 2012

that came out of there. They will win with a Conservative screen. That is huge.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

4. Its "Dick" Halperin, Dick. Don't know how many times I have to make it clear!!!

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 04:08 PM

Nov 2012

Tenleytown

(109 posts)

8. f--ck those 2 tools...

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 04:15 PM

Nov 2012

it took them months to even acknowledge Mittens is in trouble....and it so pains them...

budkin

(6,716 posts)

9. No point in promoting "horse race" anymore

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 04:16 PM

Nov 2012

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)

10. Lots of pundits who said "too close to call" before today will be calling the race for the President

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 04:37 PM

Nov 2012

Before today, they were worried about keeping their ratings up and so they promoted a horse race that they knew was an illusion.

Today, they are worried about being able to look back and brag that they predicted the election correctly.

I wonder if Rasmussen and Gallop will "comb their data" a little more carefully than they have in the past months to make sure they don't miss the final poll by as wide a margin as their prior polling has missed the polling consensus.

smorkingapple

(827 posts)

11. Why was Ohio a demographic natural for Romney? Just cause he's white?

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 05:23 PM

Nov 2012

Seriously? This fucker Cilizza gets paid mid six figures a year to come up with that bullshit?

How about the fact that Ohio has been ground zero in seeing the destructive nature of globalization and outsourcing/offshoring that Romney was a pioneer of? How about the Mormon impact? How about his lack of charisma or "common man" touch and feel?

At least with Bush I could understand it. He was more relatable to normal folk. But Romney? What the fuck does he have in common with the regular Ohio voter?

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

12. It's typically a Republican-friendly demographic.

Reply to smorkingapple (Reply #11)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 05:39 PM

Nov 2012

Few minorities, old, etc.

The problem was that corporate raiders don't play well in the Rust Belt.

DrToast

(6,414 posts)

13. Romney lost the race in the summer

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 05:51 PM

Nov 2012

Obama uses the summer to define Romney. Once that was done, it was all over. Romney couldn't shake the negative impressions people have of him in the battleground states.

lindysalsagal

(20,733 posts)

14. About Ohio: Everyone keeps forgetting that they fought back against the anti-unionists

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 07:01 PM

Nov 2012

and now their eyes are open. Once you wake up, you never go back to sleep.

They know the GOP uses all the pretty words and actually does all the dirty deeds. They've not fools, and now, they're awake. Most of them, at least.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

15. well they have to save face..

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 07:04 PM

Nov 2012

they all knew this a long time ago.

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