Final Mitchell Survey Poll: Obama 51 Romney 46 in Michigan

East Lansing—On the eve of the 2012 election, President Barack Obama has a 5 percent lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Michigan, according to the latest Mitchell Poll conducted for The Michigan View.com. Obama leads 51 percent-46 percent with 2 percent voting for someone else and just 1 percent undecided. The automated telephone survey of 1305 likely voters in the November general election was conducted November 4, 2012 and has a margin of error + or - 2.71 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence.

The survey also showed that U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow has a 14 percent lead over former U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra (55-41).

With a 5 percent lead going into the election, President Obama is poised to win Mitt Romney's home state of Michigan. Romney's lead is fueled by strong support from the approximately 1/3 of the voters who have cast an absentee ballot. Among those voters, Obama leads by 16 percent (57-41) while Romney leads by 1 percent (49-48) among those who are definitely voting tomorrow.

There has been a great deal of discussion about what percent of the voters that turn out tomorrow will be Democrats and Republicans. According to our survey, the Democratic advantage in party affiliation is +7 percent (46-39). This is about half way between the 2004 voter turnout and the 2008 voter turnout. Despite the fact that he is leading, Obama won with this group of voters by 13 percent (55-42) in 2008. The Romney campaign is going to have to do a much better job than the Obama campaign in its Get Out the Vote efforts tomorrow if they are going to overcome a 5 percent margin.

Some of the key findings are as follows:

- The gender gap is back. Obama leads with women by 13 percent (55-42) while Romney leads with men by just 3 percent (50-47).

- Obama leads by a large margin with younger voters. Among 18-29 year olds the lead is 67-23 and among 30-39 year olds it is 54-45. Obama leads 51-47 with 50-59 year olds. Obama and Romney are tied with 60-69 year old voters (49-49). Romney leads with just two age groups, 40-49 year olds (53-44) and 70 and over voters (50-48).

- Both candidates have solidified their leads with their own party. Obama leads among Democrats 93-6 while Romney leads with Republicans 93-7. Among Independents, Romney leads by 4 percent (48-44)

- By race, Obama leads by 92-7 with African-Americans while Romney leads with white voters by 7 (52-45). Among all other races, they are tied at 43 percent

- Obama currently leads in labor households by 22 percent (60-38) while Romney leads in non-labor households by 4 (50-46). About one-third of the voters live in labor households and two-thirds in non-labor households.

- Obama leads by an 88-6 margin in the City of Detroit. In the Tri-County area outside of Detroit, Obama leads by just 1 percent (49-48) while the areas outside the Tri-County area Romney leads by 1 percent (49-48).



From The Michigan View: http://www.michiganview.com/article/20121104/MIVIEW/211040354/Mitchell-Michigan-Poll--Obama-51---Romney-46#ixzz2BOju5rHZ