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jimlup

(7,968 posts)
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:50 PM Nov 2012

Somebody talk me down about Ohio...

I just saw Rachel's clip on voter suppression through onerous voting ID laws last night and I'm freaking a bit. Despite Obama's lead on paper it is going to be VERY FUCKING CLOSE. "And with provisional ballots the outcome may not be known for weeks."

Tell me that I'm wrong - Obama will have Ohio safely in the win column by 11pm!??

28 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Somebody talk me down about Ohio... (Original Post) jimlup Nov 2012 OP
Even worst case scenario he doesn't need Ohio to win Pisces Nov 2012 #1
wish I can but you are right Proud liberal 80 Nov 2012 #2
Who didn't vote in 2010? Do you have exit polls or data? morningfog Nov 2012 #8
No I do not have exit polls or data Proud liberal 80 Nov 2012 #11
Anything at all to back up that assumption? morningfog Nov 2012 #14
OK, not going to get in an argument with you Proud liberal 80 Nov 2012 #17
I'm not looking to argue, just wondering where you are getting your assertions. morningfog Nov 2012 #18
Don't be dense IfPalinisAnswerWatsQ Nov 2012 #24
My question was, how do you know which Dems stayed home? morningfog Nov 2012 #25
Exit polls IfPalinisAnswerWatsQ Nov 2012 #26
Link? morningfog Nov 2012 #28
Rick Perry probably won Texas governor because of low turn out LeftInTX Nov 2012 #27
The voter suppression storyline is a means to stop people from voting underpants Nov 2012 #3
Yes, he's winning Ohio budkin Nov 2012 #4
There are several things in OH; The Democrats have approx. 2500 lawyers on the ground. teddy51 Nov 2012 #5
I think that if the # of provisional ballots exceeds the difference... kerouac2 Nov 2012 #6
relax, Obama's got this putitinD Nov 2012 #7
Hope this helps: Blaukraut Nov 2012 #9
I'd like us to get 270 without OH. pointsoflight Nov 2012 #10
Well, me too. LisaL Nov 2012 #13
87% certainty Obama wins (Nate Silver) godai Nov 2012 #12
But how does he factor SOS Husted into his model? LisaL Nov 2012 #15
I don't give them (Husted) that degree of control. godai Nov 2012 #20
Now 91.2% n/t godai Nov 2012 #21
Please stop these 'reduce my anxiety' threads. kstewart33 Nov 2012 #16
This is why... union_maid Nov 2012 #19
EXACTLY! I have to turn her off. She irks my nerves with her negativity. Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2012 #23
Chill. It's in the media's interests to keep it looking close Maeve Nov 2012 #22

Proud liberal 80

(4,167 posts)
2. wish I can but you are right
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:55 PM
Nov 2012

ironically the voters who probably did not vote in 2010 is the reason why Ohio was taken over by republicans, and now those same republicans are trying to keep those same voters from not voting in 2012

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
8. Who didn't vote in 2010? Do you have exit polls or data?
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:00 PM
Nov 2012

How do you know those are the ones that are facing challenges to voting this year?

Proud liberal 80

(4,167 posts)
11. No I do not have exit polls or data
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:05 PM
Nov 2012

But it is obvious that the tea party types voted in 2010, while voters who normally would have voted Democratic stayed home. Those voters would include minorities and young people who are probably the ones facing the most challenges this year from the Rep in power.

 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
14. Anything at all to back up that assumption?
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:07 PM
Nov 2012

Just because teapartiers won some races doesn't mean minorities and young people stayed home.

Proud liberal 80

(4,167 posts)
17. OK, not going to get in an argument with you
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:15 PM
Nov 2012

If you believe that Democratic voters turnout in mid-term or off year elections as they do in presidential elections then ok.

 
24. Don't be dense
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:46 PM
Nov 2012

You know darned well that a lot of Obama's base did not turn out in 2010. It was a combination of Tea Party enthusiasm and lack of enthusiasm among Democrats.

LeftInTX

(25,372 posts)
27. Rick Perry probably won Texas governor because of low turn out
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:49 PM
Nov 2012

Kay Bailey Hutchinson, a US senator, a highly respected republican, friend of GWB etc lost in the primary. It was due to low turn out.

A bunch of loons came out & voted.
No one in Texas likes Rick Perry.
No one



underpants

(182,829 posts)
3. The voter suppression storyline is a means to stop people from voting
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:55 PM
Nov 2012

"the lines will be too long" etc.

 

teddy51

(3,491 posts)
5. There are several things in OH; The Democrats have approx. 2500 lawyers on the ground.
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:59 PM
Nov 2012

There is currently a law suit filed against the SOS for putting in an illegal patch to 39 counties in EV machines.

This has all been confirmed by Nina Turner, Senator in OH. (Democratic)

Oh, and we will win in OH.

kerouac2

(449 posts)
6. I think that if the # of provisional ballots exceeds the difference...
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:00 PM
Nov 2012

between Obama and romney then we would have to wait until at least 11/17 for them to even start counting the provisional ballots. They sent out 7 million absentee ballots, so the possibility for evil shenanigans between election day and the end of the month is possible IMHO...

I hope I'm wrong, so someone please correct me if I am...

I hope the long lines and fraudulent, downright criminal behavior from the GOP aren't enough to put them close enough to do something like this.

Blaukraut

(5,693 posts)
9. Hope this helps:
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:01 PM
Nov 2012
https://twitter.com/TheJusticeDept

Not sure if the Justice Department is actually monitoring Ohio polling places, but they're allowed, and with all the mischief that's been going on there, my guess would be they are.


Justice Department ?@TheJusticeDept
On Election Day, the DOJ will be monitoring polling places in 23 states. More info: http://go.usa.gov/YAvx

http://www.justice.gov/crt/about/vot/examine/activ_exam.php


Political subdivisions that are eligible for federal observers as a result of court orders under the Voting Rights Act:

State
Subdivision
Terms
California Alameda 10/19/11 order, effective until 3/30/17
Riverside County 4/30/10 order, effective until 3/31/13
Louisiana St. Landry Parish 12/5/79 order, effective "until further order of this Court"
Nebraska Colfax 3/2/12 order, effective until 3/30/15
New Mexico Sandoval County 7/6/11 order, effective through 3/15/13
(previously covered by 12/17/84, 5/17/90, 9/9/94, 11/8/04, 11/28/07, 3/3/09, 3/2/11 orders)
New York Orange County 4/24/12 order, effective through 1/31/15
Village of Port Chester (Westchester County) 12/22/09 order, effective through 6/22/16
Ohio Cuyahoga County 9/3/10 order, effective until 3/30/14
Lorain County 10/6/11 order, effective until 3/30/14

pointsoflight

(1,372 posts)
10. I'd like us to get 270 without OH.
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:04 PM
Nov 2012

I think we have a big enough margin that we'll get OH despite potential suppression and shenanigans. BUT, it could take quite a while to be finalized, so I'm hoping we get to 270 without OH. I want this officially done tomorrow night.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
13. Well, me too.
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:06 PM
Nov 2012

Or we could be sitting here until end of November still trying to figure out who won OH.

godai

(2,902 posts)
20. I don't give them (Husted) that degree of control.
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:23 PM
Nov 2012

Voters who do not have any of the above forms of identification, including a Social Security number, will still be able to vote by signing an affirmation statement swearing to the voter’s identity under penalty of election falsification and by casting a provisional ballot.

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/elections/Voters/FAQ/ID.aspx

---------------
Still may scare off some voters, hopefully not.

kstewart33

(6,551 posts)
16. Please stop these 'reduce my anxiety' threads.
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:08 PM
Nov 2012

Why worry about something that you cannot change, even though it most likely will not happen?

These freak out threads do no one any good.

Everyone is nervous. Don't increase their anxiety by expressing your own.

union_maid

(3,502 posts)
19. This is why...
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:21 PM
Nov 2012

you should never, never watch Rachel the night before an important election. I love her most of the time, but she is not going to be a calming influence. Turn off the TV and have faith in Obama's people.

Maeve

(42,282 posts)
22. Chill. It's in the media's interests to keep it looking close
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:33 PM
Nov 2012

The ID issue isn't nearly as onerous as portrayed (we've had ID laws for 5-6 years and most people will have no problem with it) and the provisional vote issue is being over-stated. It COULD matter IF this happens, or it COULD come down to X IF...yada, yada. The poll workers in Ohio are evenly balanced between Dems and Reps by law, there will be numerous lawyers' eyes everywhere and it's not going to be as close as hyped.

Most of the polls ask only "Obama or Romney" and there are a dozen others on the ballot here. I have a strong suspicion many will find they just can't bring themselves to vote Romney when it comes down to it.

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