"In Ohio, Polls Show Benefit of Auto Rescue to Obama" (538)

In Ohio, Polls Show Benefit of Auto Rescue to Obama

By MICAH COHEN at the New York Times

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/05/in-ohio-polls-show-benefit-of-auto-rescue-to-obama/

"SNIP.........................................

Mr. Obama is an 85 percent favorite to carry Ohio, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. Not coincidentally, that almost exactly matches his odds of winning re-election, according to the model.

If not for the auto rescue, Ohio’s slight Republican lean would most likely have remained in effect. Unlike in other states, there are no major demographic trends affecting the state’s partisan balance.

“Ohio in terms of demographics is a fairly static state,” Mr. Beck said. “Our Hispanic population is too small to matter except at the margins.”

If Ohio were, relative to the national popular vote, two percentage points Republican-leaning this election — its average over the last 60 years — the state would be a tossup. And if Mr. Romney were able to carry Ohio, he would have many more paths to the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House.

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