2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFINAL Election Forecast Summaries: 11/5 (evening)
Unless a major change happens in one of the models and I'm awake to see it, this will be my final summary of the various projection models I've been following for the last few weeks.
If you find this post helpful, please K&R.
[font color="blue"]
Votamatic: O 326
Election Projection: O 303
University of Illinois U-C: O 303.6; p(RE)=99.8%
Electoral-vote.com: O 294, R 220, T 24
Huffington Post: O 271, R 191, T 76
TPM/PollTracker: O 290, R 191, T 57
FiveThirtyEight: O 315.2; p(RE)=92.0%
Princeton: O 309; p(RE)=98.2%, 99.8%
DeSart/Holbrook: O 290; p(RE)=87.69%[/font]
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...And Just For Laughs, UnSkewedPolls: O 263, R 275[/font] which means my bet with Dean Chambers is presently worth $1,046. His projection went from 359 for Romney to 275 for Romney in 11 days. That's one hell of a hurricane . . .
Tomorrow, we vote.
Wednesday, we kick back and (I believe) celebrate.
Thursday, we start work on 2014.
KaryninMiami
(3,073 posts)Thanks for posting. Always up for an uplifting nightcap. Especially tonight.
smitra
(290 posts)fujiyama
(15,185 posts)Only seven EVs to go! We can do it! LOL
bench scientist
(1,107 posts)phasma ex machina
(2,328 posts)It's shown Obama leading since the beginning. It's also hosted by a Republican at heart, which negates any confirmation bias.
IfPalinisAnswerWatsQ
(452 posts)I could have sworn Sam Wang was a progressive. Are you sure?