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Chichiri

(4,667 posts)
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 12:48 AM Nov 2012

FINAL Election Forecast Summaries: 11/5 (evening)

Unless a major change happens in one of the models and I'm awake to see it, this will be my final summary of the various projection models I've been following for the last few weeks.

If you find this post helpful, please K&R.

[font color="blue"]
Votamatic: O 326

Election Projection: O 303

University of Illinois U-C: O 303.6; p(RE)=99.8%

Electoral-vote.com: O 294, R 220, T 24

Huffington Post: O 271, R 191, T 76

TPM/PollTracker: O 290, R 191, T 57

FiveThirtyEight: O 315.2; p(RE)=92.0%

Princeton: O 309; p(RE)=98.2%, 99.8%

DeSart/Holbrook: O 290; p(RE)=87.69%[/font]
[font color="red"]
...And Just For Laughs, UnSkewedPolls: O 263, R 275[/font] which means my bet with Dean Chambers is presently worth $1,046. His projection went from 359 for Romney to 275 for Romney in 11 days. That's one hell of a hurricane . . .


Tomorrow, we vote.

Wednesday, we kick back and (I believe) celebrate.

Thursday, we start work on 2014.

8 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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FINAL Election Forecast Summaries: 11/5 (evening) (Original Post) Chichiri Nov 2012 OP
Happy to K&R- lovin' those numbers. KaryninMiami Nov 2012 #1
K & R. n/t smitra Nov 2012 #2
Wow, even unskewed polls has Romney under 300. What happened to landslide? fujiyama Nov 2012 #3
Have fun spending your winnings !! lol hell of hurricane indeed bench scientist Nov 2012 #4
Election Projection carries the most weight with me. phasma ex machina Nov 2012 #5
I trust it true because it is based on math, but IfPalinisAnswerWatsQ Nov 2012 #6
I'm talking about this guy: phasma ex machina Nov 2012 #8
all together an average of 300 :) n/t FreeState Nov 2012 #7

KaryninMiami

(3,073 posts)
1. Happy to K&R- lovin' those numbers.
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 12:51 AM
Nov 2012

Thanks for posting. Always up for an uplifting nightcap. Especially tonight.

fujiyama

(15,185 posts)
3. Wow, even unskewed polls has Romney under 300. What happened to landslide?
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 01:02 AM
Nov 2012

Only seven EVs to go! We can do it! LOL

phasma ex machina

(2,328 posts)
5. Election Projection carries the most weight with me.
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 01:21 AM
Nov 2012

It's shown Obama leading since the beginning. It's also hosted by a Republican at heart, which negates any confirmation bias.

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