2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCNN Exit Polling For AL and MS (Polls now closed)
AlabamaSantorum 34%
Romney 29%
Gingrich 28%
Paul 6%
Mississippi
Romney 35%
Gingrich 30%
Santorum 29%
Paul 5%
I am inclined to believe that Tea Party conservatives may be reluctant to participate in Exit Polling, and thus Romney's number may be over-reporting.
JI7
(89,264 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Mr.Turnip
(645 posts)Looking like a BAD night for Gingrich.
Santorum looks set to outperform polls as usual.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Mr.Turnip
(645 posts)Totally blinded by his own ego and feeding off the attention he's getting.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)Mr.Turnip
(645 posts)If he gets CRAZZY momentum and goes on a long winning streak (say he somehow wins New York)
Newt's unfavorable's are simply too high even in the GOP for him to beat Romney pretty much anywhere outside the south.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)Mr.Turnip
(645 posts)I mean I guess I could say the better he does the longer the clown show goes on which is good for us.
Would that be sufficient for you?
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)1. It keeps the race going. If Romney wins both Alabama and MS today, the race is essentially over and he'll walk to the nomination.
2. Santorum has a better chance of stealing more delegates from Romney than Gingrich. Gingrich can only win in the south and even that seems shaky right now. Santorum stays in the race and he'll keep Romney from winning the needed delegates.
3. That leads to a contested (not brokered) convention where Romney will have to make some deals.
Okay, so that's only 3. Not lots, but pretty damaging to Romney.
Mr.Turnip
(645 posts)Not only to hurt the GOP but to simply experience it and the chaos it brings.
We haven't had a contested convention in forever, it'll be a great piece of political history if it happens.
LisaL
(44,974 posts)If Gingrich stays in that still could lead to brokered convention cause neither one of them might get enough votes.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Gingrich is A) allowing Romney to win certain states (MI, OH) that lead to growing momentum and B) he splits the vote enough where neither Santorum or Gingrich can grab enough delegates to be a true threat.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)End of the road for the Newster.
Carla in Sequim
(228 posts)Tell me again how Romney is polling well/leading in these two states. I don't get it.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Mr.Turnip
(645 posts)if he wins he's winning in the low 30's however he has a shot since Santorum and Newt and splitting the vote so closely.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)Mr.Turnip
(645 posts)polls have been closed for over an over and only 2% in.