2016 Postmortem

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts) Tue Nov 6, 2012, 09:03 AM Nov 2012

Why Intrade Isn't Even Higher

exhibit3 wrote on Nov 06, 2012 13:01:14 #
In reply to elbuendiego1's comment on Nov 06, 2012 12:59:12 who wrote: See those $5000 at 7.2 and 7.3? That's how

I'd love to take those out, but all that talk of intrade running off with the cash has spooked me !

It's not like placing a bet in Vegas. Intrade is in in Ireland. What guarantee is there you will get your dough?

9 replies

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Why Intrade Isn't Even Higher (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 OP

theyve been around for 10 years and have always paid scheming daemons Nov 2012 #1

But That Is A Legitimate Concern IMHO DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #3

And Intrade are so confident, they're paying off early. Panasonic Nov 2012 #2

RobMe's supper pacs have so much money they do not know where else to spend it awake Nov 2012 #4

Intrade has ALWAYS paid out MSMITH33156 Nov 2012 #5

Can you imagine having $5,000 to just waste like that? zebe83 Nov 2012 #6

Romney lives and breathes this every day of his life... smorkingapple Nov 2012 #7

$5,000.00 To Him Is Literally Like $5.00 To Us But I Read He's Quite Frugal/nt DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #8

Though we've all seen him propose a $10,000 "friendly wager" caraher Nov 2012 #9

scheming daemons

(25,487 posts)

1. theyve been around for 10 years and have always paid

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2012, 09:05 AM

Nov 2012

Concerns are unwarranted

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

3. But That Is A Legitimate Concern IMHO

Reply to scheming daemons (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 6, 2012, 09:07 AM

Nov 2012

It's not like going to the betting window at Aqueduct.

Panasonic

(2,921 posts)

2. And Intrade are so confident, they're paying off early.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2012, 09:07 AM

Nov 2012

And I happen to agree.

There's no way Rmoney can win today.

awake

(3,226 posts)

4. RobMe's supper pacs have so much money they do not know where else to spend it

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2012, 09:25 AM

Nov 2012

MSMITH33156

(879 posts)

5. Intrade has ALWAYS paid out

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2012, 09:41 AM

Nov 2012

and is reputable. The real reason it isn't higher is because it is gambling, not prediction. Gambling is about getting your odds in. For example, if it gets up to 90%, even though I strongly believe that Obama will win, I might throw some cash at Romney because of the potential payout.

InTrade will essentially settle at a happy medium where enough people think it is worth taking a flyer on Romney and enough people think the odds are still low enough where Obama's near guaranteed victory makes him a sound bet. That appears to be in the low 70s this election cycle. It fluctuated here and there, sometimes due to malfeasance, but gambling is not about predicting the future, it is about boosting your potential payout.