Mitt’s last gasp

The national horserace is tight, but almost everyone thinks the GOP nominee is going to lose
BY STEVE KORNACKI

Election Day has dawned and there hasn’t been one quite like this before. The national horserace is virtually tied, a slight 48.9 to 48.2 percent edge for President Obama over Mitt Romney. But expectations overwhelmingly favor Obama, who is far better-positioned to clear 270 electoral votes – and maybe even to snag well over 300. Nate Silver’s model now pegs the president’s chances of winning at more than 90 percent.

From the coalition that delivered him 365 electoral votes in 2008, Obama is only sure to lose one state today – Indiana and its 12 electoral votes. It also seems probable, but not certain, that he’ll fall short in the Omaha-based congressional district he carried in Nebraska, which apportions its electoral votes by district. Those losses, combined with the effects of reapportionment, leave Obama with an absolute ceiling of 347 electoral votes today. If he were to reach or approach that number, the political world would probably treat his victory as something approaching a landslide.

And even he doesn’t, Obama still has a significant margin for error. He could lose North Carolina, where he trails by three points in the Real Clear Politics average, and still have 332 electoral votes. Subtract Florida, which Silver now lists as a slightly more likely to go for Obama than Romney, and Obama will be at 303. Take away Colorado and Virginia, both of which now show tiny Obama leads in the RCP average, and the president would still have 281.

This underscores the reality of Romney’s position. It wouldn’t take much of a break for him to win the national popular vote today, but it would take a lot of breaks – a lot of big breaks – for him to actually win the presidency. It also creates the possibility of a relatively short election night. To have any realistic path to 270, Romney absolutely must lock down North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Colorado; from there, he could add several different combinations of states to cross the threshold. But if he falls short in any of those four states, it’s virtually impossible to see him winning.

more:
http://www.salon.com/2012/11/06/mitts_last_gasp/