and it's over. That's what I'm watching anyway.

Would really prefer not waiting for 2-3 weeks for Ohio to fuck around.

Those are both very blue areas. Excellent sign!

Henrico West has a lot of wealthy, red burbs

Fairfax County is red and blue (depending on the neighborhoods and who the candidates are) and western NOVA is almost 100% red.

IIRC, the current VA governor took Fairfax County during that election whereas the same area went for Obama in 2008.

Simply, high turnout in NOVA doesn't guarantee the region will have a majority vote for Obama.

greater than the margin of voting,

Provisional ballots take 10 days to adjudicate.

NC has huge early voting and those votes will be tabulated very quickly.

We are going to know North Carolina's results hours, possibly days before Ohio's.

Is officially in play for the dems to take back the majority

I was signed up to do my regular GOTV thing with a local group. We do vans and rides in very low income areas. But they have too many volunteers and say that OFA has done such an amazing job this year, they have way less to do over all. If you do GOTV, this kind of thing never happens. They never have enough help. Great problem to have.....

I am going to try to do a poll shift for a local congressional candidate and then go over to OFA and phone bank instead.

...and expect it to be called for Mittens fairly early. No need to worry, either way -- it's not necessary for us. Virginia and even Florida might be more interesting.

but PPP leans Dem so factor that in

I hope we win N.C., but agree with the poster upthread

Obviously somebody in Obama's team thinks NC is in play.

All day long! They are spending a huge amount of money here, which they wouldn't if it was a sure thing for R/R.

But Gravis is a better punching bag.

If Gravis and SurveyUSA had Romney at the lead, say so.
Gravis is a discredited pollster, and by mentioning them alone, you give the impression that Obama being down in NC is some sort of a Gravis-only outlier. Not so.

will make sure it turns blue!

a 50.3% chance of win for Obama. Ohio is 90% for Obama. Virginia is 79% for Obama.

Remember: NC has one-stop early voting. You can register and vote at the same time, and those numbers didn't show up in the reported number of those who voted. Lots of college kids and minority votes there.

during early voting is factored into to any of the polling. That is supposed to be what will make the difference.

North Carolina will go to Romney. The states that matter are Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and possibly Virginia or New Hampshire.

Obama electoral college 217 + Penn (20) + Ohio (18) + Wisconsin (10) + Iowa (6) = 271

And Obama still can get Nevada (6).

And of course, Virginia (13), NH (4), and possibly Florida (29).

So forget NC although it would be nice to win it.

in the last couple of days.

not expecting much from NC. It will be a nice frosting on the victory cake if it does go our way, but it isn't needed.

Obama is going to win 343 EVs.

MAYBE 1-1.5. Whomever does take win NC, it will be (I bet) by 1-1.5%.

GOBAMA!!!!!!!!

Let's see. Out of the swing states I've seen NC with the HIGHEST margin
of early vote Dems over Repubs for any of the swing states.

http://www.politicususa.com/obama-swing-state-voter-registration-early-voting-margins-bigger-2008.html

And all the pollster/pundits say Repubs have closed the early vote margin. What they DON'T tell you
is that the Repubs have only shifted votes from election day to early voting. They don't have the same
pool of voters left to vote on election day that they had in 2008. Dem pool of voters left to vote on election day?

Dems have a total of 1,558,229 registered voters eligible to cast votes today

Repubs have a total of 1,184,085 registered voters eligible to cast votes today.

ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf

There is NO way Repubs can catch us if we GOTV today! No way!


.

Turn NC BLUE!!!!

With OH expecting 200,000 absentee ballots, unless we don't need OH, we will be waiting well into end of Nov to find out who won.

If we're looking good there when the polls close early in the evening, that'd bode very well for the rest of the night.

I'm in NC and I think there's a strong chance that the one-stop registration/voting in early voting may be the deciding factor and the Obama campaign pushed hard during this time. It's the sort of thing that doesn't show up in polling necessarily.

But yeah, if O wins Virginia, I'll breathe a sigh of relief because that means good things for the rest of the swing states, imho.

Been saying it for weeks now..

Its actually VA not NC that will tell us how things will go.

VIRGINIA, VIRGINIA, VIRGINIA!

it went blue in 08 and may do so in 2012. My husband voted this morning in Virginia Beach and waited almost 2 hours to vote. He said that the those waiting in line were about half white and half African-American. Turnout is very heavy in this red area and that may bode well for us. I can't wait to vote this afternoon. Hopefully I'll make it home before dinner time.

The state that puts President Obama over, sort of like in the old timey conventions when the states would jockey to be the one that put the nominee over. I think Ohio is going to be too messed up, logistically, to carry that mantle. They have rendered themselves irrelevant on election night. It sounds like we may not know how Ohio goes until some time after Thanksgiving. In the meantime, VA, NC, and CO seem to be in play to put the President over 270. Unlike Romney, President Obama can actually make it to 270 without Ohio, and he might even do that before it is time to hit the hay, which would be nice.

polls that had NC dead even. All three had it all knotted up. This is going to be close.

I was just looking at the 2008 results in NC and Obama barely won by the skin of his teeth. But he had a decent size victory in OH. I think we have a better shot in VA over NC. But of course it would be nice to win NC, I'm just not going to get my hopes up because we barely won it last time.

Seem to be the folks that haven't been following the early vote.

Question how many AA have voted compared to 2008, how many new registrations did OFA get in 2012?