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The brute reality, however, is that Pennsylvania — long fool's gold for desperate Republicans at the end of losing campaigns — is almost certainly out of reach for Romney. Up in Madison, Wisconsin this morning, Obama White House senior adviser and numbers guru David Plouffe argued to me that, given the Democratic registration advantage in the state, for the Republican to win there would require him to score fully 66 percent of independents on Election Day. So why all the money being spent there? The answer is: Why not? Both the Romney campaign and the GOP super-PACs are flush with cash, and given the dearth of advertising inventory in the genuine battleground states, there really is nowhere else (that makes even the slightest sense) to spend it.

The Obama campaign's confidence extends well beyond Pennsylvania. In conversations with an array of top advisers this morning, a clear picture emerged that Chicago believes it has Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire more or less in the bag; that it feels nearly as certain of carrying Ohio; and that Obama is just a tad ahead in Virginia. As for Colorado and Florida, Team Obama believes they are both too close to call, but thinks they could well win both; they are forthrightly pessimistic only about North Carolina among the nine battlegrounds. This could all just be spin, of course — or they could simply be proven wrong. But having known and reported on these people for a solid six years now, my sense of their tone and body language is that their self-assurance is for real.

Romney's people, by contrast, are straining to project a similar degree of optimism. They point to the size of the crowds that Romney is drawing, and indeed they are impressive — not just in Morrisville but all across the country. They point to the strength of the candidate's closing argument — and indeed it is by a wide margin the best speech of his campaign, and one which, crucially, he demonstrates a great deal of comfort giving. Consider the way it closes: He’s offering excuses, I’ve got a plan. He’s hoping we’ll settle. I can’t wait for us to get started. Americans don’t settle. We build, we aspire, we listen to that voice inside that says, “We can do better.” A better job; a better life for our kids; a bigger, better country. That better life is out there, waiting for us. Our destiny is in your hands. This is much more than our moment. It is America’s moment of renewal and purpose and optimism. We have journeyed far and wide in this great campaign for America’s future. And now we are almost home. One final push will get us there. We have known many long days and short nights and now we are close. The door to a brighter future is there, open, waiting for us. I need your vote, I need your help. Walk with me, walk together. Let us start anew.

This is strong stuff, and when he is rolling, Romney delivers it well — though it must be said that, even on his best day, the Republican still pales as a speechifier versus his Democratic opponent on a bad one. But Romney and his people are not fools, let alone innumerate ones. They can read the polling as clearly as anyone. And while I've no doubt they sincerely believe that much of the public survey work is flawed in its assumptions of what the electorate that turns out will look like, the sheer weight of the numbers now and the direction of their movement is clear and quite convincing. Can Romney still win? Yes, he can — but the gradation of the uphill path he must tread is getting steeper by the hour.