2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumLIVE BLOG — Hawaii Republican Caucuses 2012
Last edited Wed Mar 14, 2012, 02:25 AM - Edit history (2)
20 Delegates - 17 bound + 3 superdelegates out of 2,286 primary delegates are at stake.By The Civil Beat Staff 03/13/2012
Welcome to Civil Beat's live blog about Hawaii's Republican caucuses.
Civil Beat is planning to have reporters at a number of caucus sites on Oahu as well as on Kauai, Maui and the Big Island.
Here's the latest:
The votes are piling up for Rick Santorum, at least in this one reporters personal exit poll.
Seven of the 10 voters I have talked to chose Santorum, and most cited his family values.
His character, his morals, what he stands for, said Summer Ball, a 33-year-old unemployed campaign volunteer who lives here in Ewa Beach.
A self-described Air Force brat who has been in Hawaii off and on since 1997, is here observing the vote, making sure nobody stuffs the ballot box.
Michael Levine
More: http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2012/03/13/15185-live-blog-hawaii-republican-caucuses-2012/
RandySF
(59,225 posts)Read it on Twitter. That should be Romney turf.
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)...Did you see that Romney has won the wealthy by a significant margin in every race. I think we're looking at Santorum/Newt in the military areas, Romney in the money areas, and a sprinkling of Paul. I kinda doubt that Hawaii give it's typical lack of enthusiasm is going to turn out big for Ron Paul (I always want to type Ron Pau - "done/over" ).
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)We talked to one Mitt Romney supporter, but there definitely seems to be an organized movement for Paul.
In fact, a stack of bumper stickers and support cards on the table for former Gov. Linda Lingle, the GOPs star player, are drawing some ire. One woman was very upset that Lingle was being allowed to campaign at the caucus.
Caucus workers are instructing people to fill out the cards which are addressed to the campaign.
Tiffany Edwards Hunt
That's rural north Big Island - Waimea is a Parker Ranch town.
RandySF
(59,225 posts)The last prominent Republicans I remember to Linda Lingle and Pat Saiki, and bot seemed pretty moderate.
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)...Lingle really is just a flip-flopping Bush "moderate" - her and Palin are pals. She puts on a good show but she's in league with the righties. The Hawaii GOP is pretty disorganized - they switched chairmen last November because Joseph Kaauwai was lousy and now they have David Chang (who I know nothing about).
Jonah Kaauwai Is Being Targeted For Replacement
Keoki Kerr KITV4 News
POSTED: 10:36 pm HST September 20, 2011
UPDATED: 11:04 pm HST September 20, 2011
Read more: http://www.kitv.com/news/29251661/detail.html#ixzz1p4GOd5GN
I think they are weaker, but still have some potential with Linda Lingle running for Senate and Charles Djou running for CD1 again.
dkf
(37,305 posts)ellisonz
(27,711 posts)People from various camps are starting to trickle into the HQ, which has been somewhat quiet for most of the evening.
Stacks of red-and-white Hawaii GOP shirts are still waiting to be passed out.
Nathan Eagle
Jefferson Elementary is Waikiki.
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)Seems like the majority of Hawaiians will be voting for President Obama in November.
Hard to even imagine there being very many republicans in Hawaii.
===========
Edited to add
From the 2008 Presidential election:
Obama 325,871 (71.85 %)
McCain 120,566 (26.58 %)
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)You can switch at the Caucus site, but you've got to be a registered Republican, no independents.
Hawaii is 40% registered Democrats, 23% registered Republicans and the remaining 37% are independents.
First results will be about half an hour.
Whew - the DU is glitching again.
dkf
(37,305 posts)But you can sign up right there at the caucus. That is generally how they gain their members, at least that's how the Hawaii Democrats work.
When we pull ballots for the primary elections you get to choose which party you are voting for so it doesn't matter if you are a registered R or D.
Response to ellisonz (Reply #6)
Tx4obama This message was self-deleted by its author.
musicblind
(4,484 posts)ellisonz
(27,711 posts)I don't even think the local stations bother covering it live really...
Glad you stayed up - but I think it could be an hour or two before there is a clear picture. Hawaii ain't exactly the most organized political state.
musicblind
(4,484 posts)they are all equal and this is a big day for Hawaii.
musicblind
(4,484 posts)ellisonz
(27,711 posts)KAHULUI, MAUI Things have slowed down here. Every few minutes someone shows up, but the rush seen at the beginning is over.
Poll watchers are on hand for Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, but no one is here watching out for New Gingrichs interests.
Sean Housman is a 35-year-old pastor who is serving as a poll watcher for Ron Paul.
Ive never been passionate about politics, but Ron Paul woke me up, he says.
Todd A. Vines
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)by Clayton Wakida/Staff 11:13 PM
RT @CivilBeat: [VIDEO] Hawaiis Lone GOP State Senator Comes Out For Romney [LIVE BLOG Hawaii Republican Caucuses 2012] t.co ...
by DannysKorner via twitter 10:55 PM
Mitt Romney: "Hawaii is a special place, if I didn't already own a private island It'd be my adopted summer home state" #realMittRomney #GOP
by pdopetakeover via twitter 10:56 PM
18 minutes to close #808caucus ... Note these are all paper ballots so don't expect instant results
by DannysKorner via twitter 10:39 PM
Read more: http://livewire.kitv.com/Event/Hawaii_Republican_Presidential_Caucus#ixzz1p4LzuRUI
RandySF
(59,225 posts)ellisonz
(27,711 posts)ellisonz
(27,711 posts)RandySF
(59,225 posts)in a state that Obama will carry without a sweat?
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)musicblind
(4,484 posts)The reason... we're political junkies. That's why
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)20 total delegates: 17 bound delegates / 3 super-delegates
Proportional, NOT winner take all.
http://www.demconwatchblog.com/
RandySF
(59,225 posts)ellisonz
(27,711 posts)About 100 votes - rural areas in Maui County.
http://graphics.latimes.com/2012-election-gop-results-map-hawaii/?track=231883
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)(7/45 precincts - 2 Oahu - 4 Maui - 1 Big Island)
RandySF
(59,225 posts)I thought it was a lock for Willard.
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)We'll know when Oahu comes in - important to remember that's 75% of the state. It's close on Oahu - He's down to Frothy by about 3 points.
RandySF
(59,225 posts)There may be a few thousand votes by the time this is over.
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)...they are Republicans after all.
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)LisaL
(44,974 posts)Lolpac.org
(1 post)(just have to scroll down a bit for Hawaii)
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)ellisonz
(27,711 posts)Rmoney ahead in Oahu, Maui and Big Island counties, no Kauai results.
http://graphics.latimes.com/2012-election-gop-results-map-hawaii/?track=231883
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)Only 2 precincts from Oahu, (12/45) reporting.
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)ellisonz
(27,711 posts)RandySF
(59,225 posts)Because he can finally celebrate a Rmoney victory tonight.
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)Mitt Romney - 435 votes - 33%
Rick Santorum - 378 votes - 28%
Ron Paul - 313 votes - 23%
Newt Gingrich - 210 votes - 16%
RandySF
(59,225 posts)And Paul catching up to Rmoney in Hawaii County. COULD get interesting.
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)No sleep for nobody now - hope you got mai tais.
RandySF
(59,225 posts)Is it insurance for Willard?
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)But yeah, Kauai probably goes Willard - lotta rich people in new developments. Oahu is his problem - fair deal of fundies.
According to the civilbeat blog, Laie had about 1000 people - so that's where Romney is really hedging. Brigham Young has a campus there.
RandySF
(59,225 posts)Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)Nate Silver ? @fivethirtyeight
Romney still up 4 in Hawaii. But Santorum has a slight lead so far in Honolulu County, where most of the remaining vote is.
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/179829730097377280
RandySF
(59,225 posts)ellisonz
(27,711 posts)12:30 a.m. PDT
Romney
531 votes
31.6%
Santorum
466 votes
Paul
435 votes
25.9%
Gingrich
250 votes
14.9%
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)Nate Silver ? @fivethirtyeight
Hawaii did not start voting until Midnight eastern (6pm local), AFTER results of MS/AL were known. May explain why Mitt underperforming
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)...my sense is that those who chalked off Hawaii did so prematurely. The fundamentalist community in Hawaii is strong and they underestimated that in their predictions. We're still waiting for most of the big districts on Oahu.
Maui and the Big Island are both extremely narrow.
RandySF
(59,225 posts)Rmoney - 31%
Man on Dog - 28%
Crazy Old Bat - 26%
RandySF
(59,225 posts)With seven of eight precincts reporting on Maui, Mitt Romney has 243 votes and Ron Paul has 239. Paul may not have won a state nationally, but hes close to winning a Hawaii county.
Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are slugging it out in Hawaii, with Romney holding a slight edge with 33 percent of precincts reporting. Romney has 435 votes, Santorum 378, Ron Paul 313 and New Gingrich 210. The turnout in heavily Mormon Laie is still not in. About 1,000 people are believed to have voted there.
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)42.2% precincts reporting (19/45) |
More from Oahu. Romney pulls ahead there by 3%.
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)One hour and 55 minutes after the caucuses closed, the Hawaii Republican Party still hadnt counted ballots from more than 50 percent of its 45 precincts.
This was the partys first caucus, and it showed. The party ran out of ballots at a handful of precincts. And at 9:55, it had results from just 17 of 45 precincts, or 38 percent.
Civil Beat Blog
On the KITV Live Feed: http://livewire.kitv.com/Event/Hawaii_Republican_Presidential_Caucus - They seem to be manually delivering caucus results to the headquarters where they are counted and then results are posted as such. This is not unprecedented for Hawaii elections but it does seems to be slightly slower than past elections (the state isn't that fast either). Hope no one has to get up early tomorrow, this could be a late night!
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)Mitt Romney - 1,213 votes - 34%
Rick Santorum - 1,051 votes - 30%
Ron Paul - 778 votes - 22%
Newt Gingrich - 481 votes - 14%
Romney up by 4% on Oahu, wins Maui by 9 votes, Ron Paul leading on the Big Island.
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)Ron Paul looks to have won the Big Island.
62.2% precincts reporting (28/45) |
1:21 a.m. PDT
Oahu (11/23)
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)68.9% precincts reporting (31/45) |
1:24 a.m. PDT
(14/23) on Oahu and Romney has a 7% lead.
Mitt Romney - 1,732 votes - 36%
Rick Santorum - 1,418 votes - 29%
Ron Paul - 1,055 votes - 22%
Newt Gingrich - 669 votes - 14%
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)ellisonz
(27,711 posts)CD2 which is everything outside of Honolulu town, Pearl Harbor and Mililani outvoted CD-1 pretty massively. It's looking like he got 1000 net votes out of Laie (folks don't vacation at the Polynesian Cultural Center). Guess they had no qualms voting for a moderate!
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_cd/HI_Page_0313_VD.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)77.8% precincts reporting (35/45) |
1:30 a.m. PDT
I think Laie just came in and that might be all she wrote. Romney now has a 1300 vote lead. Damn those Mormons got out and went to vote. Could be Waikiki too.
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)I expect it to probably narrow a little bit - but he got what he needed from the flock.
Tx4obama
(36,974 posts)ellisonz
(27,711 posts)Low turnout in Santorum areas did him in
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)1:48 a.m. PDT
Romney
3,235 votes
45.0%
Santorum
1,822 votes
25.3%
Paul
1,335 votes
18.6%
Gingrich
798 votes
11.1%
ellisonz
(27,711 posts)4,250 votes
45.4
9 - Delegates
Santorum
2,369 votes
25.3%
4 - Delegates
Paul
1,712 votes
18.3%
1 - Delegate
Gingrich
1,034 votes
11.0%
0
mahina
(17,697 posts)Just got to this...nice going!
The Civil Beat article is a crackup too...
KamaAina
(78,249 posts)(HI's legislature is 43-8 D in the House and an unbelievable 24-1 D in the Senate! I wonder how Sen. Slom fared in the leadership election. And how he manages to cover all the committees. )