Compared RCP '08/12 Polls. I Predict O 297 R 241

I looked at the polls in RCP from 2008 to try to see trends and who was most accurate.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/election_2008/electoral_count_no_toss_ups.html

My conclusion Obama 297 to Romney 241

I looked at where Obama underperformed and where he beat expectations. I looked at which polling companies got things right.

Rasmussen got things wrong in a lot of battleground states. Sometimes they were the only one predicting a McCain win in a state Obama won. Example Florida 2008 Ras was only one of latest polls that had McCain winning narrowly.

I also noticed Obama under performed in Iowa. The polls predicted O +15 but election was +9. I suspect Iowa is hard to poll and evangelicals are under counted. So in my prediction I gave Romney Iowa.

Florida looks like a Romney win only because of some unreliable polling outfits showing large Romney margin. Florida is a total toss up state. Flip a coin. But I gave it to Romney.

Election day surprises? Obama could win by over 300 if he wins Florida. Obama could win NC (Dems should have fought for it). Iowa and NH could go Romney.

My biggest prediction: We will not know who won Ohio, Florida or NC tonight but Obama will still have 279. Watch for Virginia because if O win Virginia we'll know he is going to win.