2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumVotamatic has factored in their last set of polls Some Romney southern states are pink now! Wow!
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by Drew November 6, 2012 1 Comment
With the last set of polls factored into the model, my final prediction is Obama to win 332 electoral votes, with 206 for Romney. This is both the median and the modal outcome in my electoral vote simulation, and corresponds to Obama winning all of his 2008 states except Indiana and North Carolina.
The four closest states and therefore the most difficult to predict are Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado. Of these, my model only expects Romney to win North Carolina; but Florida is a true toss-up, with just a 60% chance of Obama victory. I would not be surprised if Florida ended up going for Romney. If that happens, Obama would win 303 electoral votes, which is the second-most likely scenario in my simulation. The third-most likely scenario is that Obama wins 347 electoral votes, picking up North Carolina in addition to Florida.
Its been interesting to watch the forecasts of other poll watchers converge on the 332 estimate. Sam Wang, at the Princeton Election Consortium, also sees 332 as the modal outcome. So does Simon Jackman at the Huffington Post, and Josh Putnam at FHQ. Nate Silver, at his FiveThirtyEight blog, reports the mean of his electoral vote simulation at 313 effectively splitting the difference on Florida, which he currently rates a 50.3% chance of an Obama win. But his most likely outcome is still Obama 332, followed by 303 and 347, just like me.
There will be plenty of opportunities to evaluate all of these forecasts once the election results are known. Ive already laid out the standards Ill be using to check my own model. This is how quantitative election forecasting can make progress, and hopefully work even better next time.
Ill add, though, that on the eve of the election, averaging the polls, or running them through any sort of sensible model, isnt all that hard. We are all using the same data (more or less) and so it doesnt surprise me that were all reaching similar conclusions. The real challenge is producing meaningful and accurate forecasts early in the campaign. My model is designed to be robust to short-term fluctuations in the polls, and converge in a stable and gradual manner to the final, Election Day estimates. It appears that in this regard, the model has worked as intended.
But from a broader perspective, my model has been predicting that Obama will win 332 electoral votes give or take since June. If all of us are correct today, the next question to ask is when each model arrived at the ultimate outcome. Thats a big if, though. Lets start with how the votes come in tonight, and go from there.
http://votamatic.org/
Binders Keepers
(369 posts)Dkc05
(375 posts)Douglas , Wyndotte will go for Obama.
socialindependocrat
(1,372 posts)or is it really meant to be pink?
Just wondering...
goclark
(30,404 posts)Ohio etc.
Thugs are doing all kinds of tricks to mess with the poll numbers!
codjh9
(2,781 posts)LuvNewcastle
(16,846 posts)It's probably because both states have such high black populations and because there is such a high turnout for blacks in this election. A lot of white Democrats also get out to vote in pres. elections, many of whom never vote at any other time.
codjh9
(2,781 posts)means it's even closer (to 50-50). But yeah, I agree - I thought of the high black populations in those states and the high turnout. Gawd that would be incredible for Obama to win either of those states.
LuvNewcastle
(16,846 posts)I know some people who would come close to having a stroke, and I would be laughing like hell.
socialindependocrat
(1,372 posts)It makes it interesting to see polls that don't agree and to find out why.
In future elections it would be of value to identify each poll with an accuracy grade or number.
Meaning that if all the "good" or accurate polls are designated with an "A" or **** (four stars)
and the less accurate polls are signified with 3 stars or less. Wouldn't this make the less
reliable polls want to get their act together and increase their accuracy to become 4 star polls
and wouldn't it make it less likely for a poll to sacrifice it's rating in order to to scew their
numbers for the purpose of providing PROPAGANDA for the underdogs!
Let's make out system better, more accurate, believable.
Let's get the propaganda out of politics!
We have to start somewhere!
DCKit
(18,541 posts)Did the owners of the MSM realize they be energizing the vote with their stupid polls?
They should have led with "your vote doesn't matter" and "your vote won't be counted" from the beginning.