2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumI need your Democratic opinion for my media broadcast during tonights election.
Last edited Tue Nov 6, 2012, 05:50 PM - Edit history (1)
I shall be on the air tonight reporting on tonights election and need your opinion.
I will be debating my article with Republicans as well as providing analysis as the vote comes in.
My article is one that I have already posted however heres a link
http://viewsfromapoint.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/unravelling-the-race-to-270-an-analysis-of-battleground-states/
Please let me know your opinions as I would like, unlike my Republican counterpary, to convey not just my own opinion but that of many.
Thanks for your help.
socialindependocrat
(1,372 posts)This was a post earlier today.
I thought his statistics were good and there are a few other polls that he cites as being in agreement.
Good luck tyonight!!
joejoejoe
(29 posts)Would you have any personal opinion on how the results will fall?
Voice for Peace
(13,141 posts)There is passion for this, there is love for the man.
Two-way love.
socialindependocrat
(1,372 posts)The only way to predict is to gather all the data you can and deduce from that.
You seem to have made the worst case for Obama for the swing states
and he still comes out winning - That's great. You gave it a hard look and
and were more than fair in your judgement.
The only state I have a fear about is Ohio and their latest adjustment to the polling machines.
Their secretary of state has tried to manipulate the system at every stage of the election and really needs to be removed from the election process. There is a post, earlier today, that tells of a govermant analyst who has identified statistical anomalies in past elections from 2000. Hopefully, this will be investigated further. My only opinion is that this hocus-pocus crap with voter supression needs to stop and some people need to go to prison. I read a book by a Rep from FL who states
that Bush stole the election (without a doubt) and still we went thru 8 years that put us where we are today. (Fire-breathing Liberal by Robert Wexler) I don't hear of anyone being prosecuted for this!
Sorry - you got my feeling, though....
joejoejoe
(29 posts)Its angles like this that I want to look from and try get a view!
fiorello
(182 posts)Two issues that may help:
In 2008 McCain had a big early lead in VA - and held onto it until very late, 11 pm or so. Northern Virginia wasn't counted until the end - Obama ended winning by 6% or so.
Gerrymandered Congress: almost certainly, Democrats in Congress will receive more votes - but Republicans will retain control because so many districts have been gerrymandered to favor them. Sam Wang at election.princeton.com wrote that Democrats need 52% of the vote to win a majority in the House of R. That's the equivalent of stealing 2 million votes or more! And the media ignores it!!! Please, whenever 'Congress' is mentioned, say 'gerrymander'!
PS. Obama will win New Hampshire and Iowa, fairly easily. Too many highly informed voters.
Gerrymandering is something I have looked at at lenght and will be writting an article on it soon. Its an issue ill definetly be bringing up.