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Interesting FHQ analysis and prediction (Lots of details at link too)
Tuesday, November 6, 2012The Electoral College Map (11/6/12): Election Day
Election day is here, and here is how things look at FHQ.
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The election day map ends up just about right where it started out in July.
Michigan shifted over those four months from Toss Up Obama to Lean Obama but always hovered around the line between those two categories.
Minnesota moved from Strong Obama to Lean Obama just recently. Much of that is attributable to a contraction in the most recently released polling, but part of it also has to do with the overall lack of polls in the Land of 10,000 Lakes as compared to other similar states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. [The same was true of Oregon.]
Indiana, Montana and Tennessee all started off in the Lean Romney category, drifted upward into the Strong Romney area throughout the late summer and early fall. That puts all three in line with where they would have been if we assumed a uniform shift in support toward the Republicans since the 2008 cycle.
The margin in Missouri also moved up, but the Show Me state pushed from Toss Up Romney to Lean Romney after the conventions.
Michigan shifted over those four months from Toss Up Obama to Lean Obama but always hovered around the line between those two categories.
Minnesota moved from Strong Obama to Lean Obama just recently. Much of that is attributable to a contraction in the most recently released polling, but part of it also has to do with the overall lack of polls in the Land of 10,000 Lakes as compared to other similar states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. [The same was true of Oregon.]
Indiana, Montana and Tennessee all started off in the Lean Romney category, drifted upward into the Strong Romney area throughout the late summer and early fall. That puts all three in line with where they would have been if we assumed a uniform shift in support toward the Republicans since the 2008 cycle.
The margin in Missouri also moved up, but the Show Me state pushed from Toss Up Romney to Lean Romney after the conventions.
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/
