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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumElection Day Forecast: Obama 332, Romney 206
With the last set of polls factored into the model, my final prediction is Obama to win 332 electoral votes, with 206 for Romney. This is both the median and the modal outcome in my electoral vote simulation, and corresponds to Obama winning all of his 2008 states except Indiana and North Carolina.
The four closest states and therefore the most difficult to predict are Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado. Of these, my model only expects Romney to win North Carolina; but Florida is a true toss-up, with just a 60% chance of Obama victory. I would not be surprised if Florida ended up going for Romney. If that happens, Obama would win 303 electoral votes, which is the second-most likely scenario in my simulation. The third-most likely scenario is that Obama wins 347 electoral votes, picking up North Carolina in addition to Florida.
Its been interesting to watch the forecasts of other poll watchers converge on the 332 estimate. Sam Wang, at the Princeton Election Consortium, also sees 332 as the modal outcome. So does Simon Jackman at the Huffington Post, and Josh Putnam at FHQ. Nate Silver, at his FiveThirtyEight blog, reports the mean of his electoral vote simulation at 313 effectively splitting the difference on Florida, which he currently rates a 50.3% chance of an Obama win. But his most likely outcome is still Obama 332, followed by 303 and 347, just like me.
There will be plenty of opportunities to evaluate all of these forecasts once the election results are known. Ive already laid out the standards Ill be using to check my own model. This is how quantitative election forecasting can make progress, and hopefully work even better next time.
http://votamatic.org/
The four closest states and therefore the most difficult to predict are Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado. Of these, my model only expects Romney to win North Carolina; but Florida is a true toss-up, with just a 60% chance of Obama victory. I would not be surprised if Florida ended up going for Romney. If that happens, Obama would win 303 electoral votes, which is the second-most likely scenario in my simulation. The third-most likely scenario is that Obama wins 347 electoral votes, picking up North Carolina in addition to Florida.
Its been interesting to watch the forecasts of other poll watchers converge on the 332 estimate. Sam Wang, at the Princeton Election Consortium, also sees 332 as the modal outcome. So does Simon Jackman at the Huffington Post, and Josh Putnam at FHQ. Nate Silver, at his FiveThirtyEight blog, reports the mean of his electoral vote simulation at 313 effectively splitting the difference on Florida, which he currently rates a 50.3% chance of an Obama win. But his most likely outcome is still Obama 332, followed by 303 and 347, just like me.
There will be plenty of opportunities to evaluate all of these forecasts once the election results are known. Ive already laid out the standards Ill be using to check my own model. This is how quantitative election forecasting can make progress, and hopefully work even better next time.
http://votamatic.org/
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Election Day Forecast: Obama 332, Romney 206 (Original Post)
DemocratSinceBirth
Nov 2012
OP
Gamecock Lefty
(700 posts)1. 206? NO!
Damn - I'm hoping Romney doesn't break 200!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)3. Let's Not Greedy
You reminded me of myself when I want my team to humiliate its opponent.
TomClash
(11,344 posts)2. Absent any shenanigans
332 sounds about right.
berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)4. 347-191