Encouraging to say the least.

imo

use "likely voters" in their polling rather than "registered voters", which is much looser (and better for Obama).

Gallup has a pretty decent explanation of their questions and how that translates from an RV to an LV.

There are many, many problems in going from RV to LV and no one has done a good job of modeling it. Ultimately, it's unpredictable. The only true measure of RV to LV is the actual election.

Do I have it right? thanks to you &midnight, too

and utter distaste for Romney.

they underestimated the intelligence of informed people,
when they excluded them from likely voters.

A likely voter screen might be that they thought 100% of registered R's would likely vote and only 20% of registered D's would vote.

Then if 50% of registered R's vote as well as 50% of registered D's, that would be an match of the registered ratio, not their supposed " likely" ratio.

they believe are "likely" voters, as opposed to simply "registered" voters...

The LV model is what was used the last couple months in most of the polls.

election which would be 2010 wherein many voters were GOPpers. So therefore, many of the pollsters relied on this scenario. Many of the pollsters un-estimated the "Latino" vote as well as other minorities, and what they focused on were the white votes at least 70-78%. Pollsters speaking with "likely voters" pretty much ignored the rest of the field and since a large % of likely voters were white and voted in the 2010 elections of course there was an enthusiastic gap.

Seems likely they were wrong.

Glad you're here! I'm nervous as all-get-out, today! I figured earlier I'd be chewing my cuticles all the way up to the elbows. DU is a great place to find sanity in the midst of the madness!

hope your right.

(One of my favorite 60s bands! - I bet you hear that a fair amount!)

Here's hoping this turns out the way we both want and NEED for it to turn out! For the sake of our country, our future, and our sanity! Glad you're here - tonight's gonna be a white-knuckler.

easy to steal the vote as it was in 2000! Which we know for sure was done.

the theft in '04 in OH. That second term of W nearly killed me.

and it damn sure nearly killed the economy.

2004 - Ohio.

The House of Representatives is probably the most important part of this particular election cycle...

The President needs a Congress that WON'T try to kneecap him at every turn, just because of his skin color or party affiliation...

as we speak/write the GOPpers are plotting their next move to destroy America. GOP house have already determined that they will impeach Pres O over Libya. Isn't that just sad.

I hope the heavy, RV turnout translates to more DEM Congresscritters getting elected.

Let's make the GOP obstructionism irrelevant! I can dream, can't I?

K&R mean?

By replying to an earlier post, you "Kick" that post in order to keep it on some page (just what that "Page" is, I have no clue).

Then there is a Greatest Page where any thread that gets 5 or more "Recs" is listed.

I hope that helps, but I haven't been around very long.

347 EV.

And all they did was talk to those who didn't vote for him the last time.

but at least I have one eye open.

Thanks. *wipes sweat from brow*

Things are looking good!

Clark County (Las Vegas)

All along I've been saying that the people in line for early voting looked NOTHING like the "likely voters" of the republican pollster myth.