across all groups, including the fact that 81% of Bernie Sanders supporters have already moved to back Hillary.

The polls are going to be fluid at this point.

When one side that lost still thinks it's competitive? ?

Polls are crap anyway.

the Greens and Libertarians aren't on all the state ballots.

2 men. Bernie and Drumpf. Perhaps Bernie will get behind her now that he has NO hope of winning the nomination and she will only have to campaign against the repukes.

I'd have to look at crosstabs from the Rasmussen Reports poll.

One thing I notice is this: "The candidates are tied among voters under 40, and Trump leads among older voters."

No.

The four voting-age groups, from exit polls, are typically: 18–29; 30–44; 45–64; and 65+.

No way is Donald Trump matching Hillary Clinton presumably with those in the second age group (minus those aged 41 to 44).

I've seen national +10 (or so) Hillary polls in which she is almost, or actually, even with Trump for the 65+ voters. (They're the first to vote Republican.)

There is likely something screwy with the particular poll from Rasmussen. (Then again, that wouldn't a first.)



Adding to this: The fact that Politico reports that Quinnipiac finds that Trump leads white men by +31 but that Hillary leads white women by +3. Ah, no! There would not be a +34 spread. And there likely not be a disagreement for apparent leads unless Trump's margin was by less than +10 with me and Hillary was leading women by +1 or +2.


One way one can told who—Trump or Clinton—will win is going by their same-party support. Who holds one's party's numbers better. This also will indicate the weaker performance gives more crossover voters to the candidate who performs better. And it's likely to complete a trio with that stronger candidate winning more independents. At this point, the advantages are pointing to Hillary Clinton.

Why?

Two out of the three choices are disasters.

One would end most of life on earth.

On would put a creepy sexist and racist asshole in charge of the most powerful country in the world.

Hillary is not only "the only adult on the room", she's an eminently qualified, genuinely caring and compassionate person who understand the complexities of our world. She will lead our country and the world in the most progressive direction we have yet seen. She will break that glass ceiling for women, and anyone who thinks that doesn't matter hasn't been paying attention. She will continue and improved President Obama's green initiatives, reinforce labor, gives relief for student debt and implement plans for an educated poplace. She had plans to regulate the financial markets in a safe and effective way, soothing the economy and allowing healthy growth. She will continue to address and fight for immigration reform in real time--rather than "othering" immigrants, documented or otherwise.

She will be following one of the greatest presidents the country has yet seen.

And people pick Trump? Or a meteor? Well. I guess that is kinda funny.

if it is I may have to reconsider my vote!

I'm going to go out with my friends and family, grill some steaks, drink lots of beer, and watch some good old fashioned fireworks. Life is too short to worry about every fluctuation in the polls. Sometimes you just have to get out and live in the moment.