Sam Wang: Ignore Exit Polls, Watch New Hampshire, 99.2% probability Obama win:

I’ve made a simple guide for tracking the election. It’s at geeks-guide-2012-b.pdf. My two pieces of advice are:

■Ignore exit polls and large states.
■Watch New Hampshire (expectation: Obama +3%).
I’ll use this post to list some resources. I’ll update this on the fly – check back now and then. Or leave your own in comments.


http://election.princeton.edu/