what's wrong, was your Ouija board broken? Do you ever, ever post anything other than bogus, bullshit polls?

You are kidding right?

the Reuters-Ipsos poll confirms that Trump is surging.

He made up 13 points in 10 days.

Facts are facts.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Silver has Ohio, Florida, and Iowa light pink in the polls only forecast. Clinton's chances in that forecast have gone from 80% to 57% in a month.

I'd wondered when it would happen.

of polls that come out on Sunday morning after the Convention.

Before we run through the polls, a note of caution: The convention bounce is going to be harder than usual to study this year. That’s because in contrast to 2012, when the polls were extremely steady for weeks before the conventions, they were on the move heading into the RNC this year. In particular, they were on the move toward Trump — or away from Clinton — with Trump whittling down what had been a 6- or 7-percentage point lead for Clinton in late June into something more like a 3-point lead by mid-July.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-is-trump-getting-a-convention-bump/

have a grain of salt?

How could that convention have aided Donald so dramatically

Gravis is a bullshit poll and our convention is coming up. He should have had a yuuuuge bounce like we will after our convention. He did not have the wonderful speakers we have.

Which leads to the conclusion that it was probably an outlier. Most other polls had her lead at 3 to 5 points. Then there was a convention bounce, a tiny convention bounce, for Trump. Using an outlier poll and a not too reliable poll taken after a convention, to prove a 13 point lead has dissolved for Hillary is disingenuous at best; but, hey you just keep right on trying.

after Melania-gate. More needs to be said about the relationship of Trumps key person and his relationship to Russia and Putin...that's NOT putting America first.

about the Trump organization's relationship with Putin and Russian banks
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-putin-yes-it-s-really-a-thing

I've been thinking he can't possibly get through a traditional debate against her. I expect him to continue bashing the press and start making unreasonable demands about the debate formats.
If he ends up facing her directly she will make him look like a bigger fool than he is.

is he going to step into the ring with Hillary. He'll look like a fool debating her and he knows it.

There you go again.

I'm seeing 39.1% to 30.5% in favor of Clinton. Am I looking in the wrong place?

but they tend to be lagging indicators..for obvious reasons.

In other words, over the past week or so trump has been surging. That will take time to be reflected in the averages

Trump is surging, it has more to do with Clinton declining. The FBI announcement knocked her down a peg or two.

Even in the most favorable polls for Trump, he struggles to get above 40%. Clinton's ceiling had already proven to be higher.

At the link in the op? I can't find what you posted....

it's gold

I hate to put anybody on ignore, but you appear to be here to push negative energy.

Gravis does lean republican but what people aren't saying is that Clinton lead in every Gravis poll before this one. We still don't have any polls conducted completely after the RNC and Donald Mussolini's Thursday night tirade. Nate Silver now has Florida, Iowa, and Ohio favoring Trump. That said, these are not trends yet. We don't know what the rest of the polling will show.

and a tendency to try to ignore evidence that we don't like. People also thought there was no way the Brits would vote for Brexit either. But it happened. Turnout will need to be huge in Nov.

until after our Convention, then look at the higher rated polls. In two weeks we'll have a much better idea of where we stand. It's futile getting overly worried the weekend before our Convention. And, talk about "snapshot" polls. If, at worst, Trump's bounce is only 3 points, that's not much of a bounce.

Just stay motivated, be happy about Kaine, and don't worry about the polls for a couple of weeks.

and the results have been all over the place. But go ahead and keep playing with it if it makes you happy.


On edit: and it's conducted entirely in English -- no surveys in Spanish for Spanish speakers, like more reputable pollsters.

Which is why you choose not to even mention the fact that this is a Gravis poll.

I think we have a substantial advantage in this area, and it's imperative to:

1. Identify voters and register them
2. Pile up early vote margins
3. Purchase ad time now for ad times in October/November, while the Trump campaign has no money, effectively squeezing them out of advertising during that period, or forcing them to pay more at a later date when rates are more expensive.

woolldog was very concerned about McCain winning in 2008.
woolldog was very concerned about Romney winning in 2012.
woolldog is now very concerned about Trump winning in 2016.

Every. Four. Years.

choose wisely, its your future

CNN has Trump at +4

LA Times/USC has Trump at +4

CBS News has Trump at +1

Meanwhile the far left is arguing about Sanders and DWS and the DNC. More far left protestors protesting the DNC instead of Trump the fascist.