and the post convention bounce will add to it.

get we will work like we're 20 points behind!

Mahalo stillone~ GOTV2016!


Pat Fuller ?@bannerite
If you are sick and tired of GOP obstruction and grandstanding, then it's time to ride the wave!
8:44 AM - 6 Jul 2016
26 26 Retweets 33 33 likes

https://theobamadiary.com/2016/07/06/chat-away-altonsterling/

I have been looking a polls for many years and for some strange reason Rassmussen polls (and I don't think it's only because it is Republican polling organization) have always rated Democratic candidates 2% to 5% lower Republican candidates as compared to all of the other polls. (I think it may be because of the way they pick their samples.) And they are seldom accurate.

This is a good sign indeed!

lost in 2012.. were they reading Rasmussen or were their internals that skewed?

they had already measured for new curtains and no concession speech.

that will teach mitt to lie about President Obama. You don't come for him unless he sends for you.

Their own pollsters are showing it.

... definitely skews in favor of Republicans compared to other polls, so THANK YOU for this encouraging news!

Despite some infighting with Sanders supporters this has been absolute blockbuster of week. So many historically great speeches and a message of hope and optimism. Very well laid out psychologically, the people who scheduled the speaker know exactly what they are doing.

This was a long sell, 4 days to take the viewer on a journey to make the case. It has been brilliant.

for all the breathlessness of the "liberal" media about the republicans "DEEP BENCH" and "STARS" BEFORE the primary, when the dust settled, the DNC had BHO, Biden, Kaine, Bloomberg, Bill, MO, etc hitting home run after homerun, the Rs had Trump and Chachi ...

I am not trying to be divisive but just wondering where who the 42% is because sometimes just by states don't tell the whole story
This leaves 15 undecided , none, or 3rd party at this point ?

nationally. Didn't Rasmussen have Romney winning in their final 2012 polls?

by about 4%, I believe.

So Rasmussen had a 5 point miss in 2012. They were surprisingly close in 2008. I thought they were off quite a bit back then as well.

as MoEs are usually 2 or 3 points, sometimes 4. So +1 anyone is basically a tie.

I caught (in media res) a conversation from the Convention floor that Charlie Rose did with Jim Messina (Obama's former campaign manager) last night. Rose was asking him, "so why is Donald Trump doing so well, given all the negatives"? Messina explained that at this point in every campaign cycle--the conventions and just after--there is automatically a 45-45 tie in the polls. Democrats and Republicans divide into camps, at least for the time being. It's that other 10%, he explained, and then went on to very confidently state that this race will NOT be close in the end. I'm not explaining the details well (it was very late!), so if and when a video clip comes up, I'll try to grab it for everyone.

This was not just happy talk from a Democratic operative. It was very convincing.

So if they have Clinton back up that is encouraging.

Nice turnaround for Hillary.

It's a good sign.

The RNC, Kaine, and first day of the DNC could all be factors resulting this +2% gain for Clinton. Last week Trump was up 1% in Rasmussen. This is the third poll (Economist/YouGov and NBC News the other two) showing Clinton, not Trump, polling higher after the RNC. So far this is looking good and goes against polls like the LA Times/USC that have Trump up 7% from a week ago.

that Trump got a negative "bounce" from the RNC

Take any Rasmussen poll and add 5 points to Hillary's total and subtract 3 from Trump's total.

That will give you the real numbers.

Hillary is probably +9 in reality nationally and climbing.