Clinton Edging Back Up On 538, In Polls, and On Betting Markets
It seems Trump's high water mark is going to be rather shallow. Apparently a psychotic, rambling speech and flirting with treason aren't winning over too many people. Let's take a look at the numbers
Huffington Post Polls/Pollster.com
Clinton had been down to just about 1.5 points ahead a few days ago, now she is at a 2.1 point lead.
538
She was a 52.4% chance of winning in the polls only forecast, now she is at 53.7.
Clinton was down to 59.5% chance of winning in the polls plus forecast, now she is up to 61.6
And in the Now Cast, she was down to 44.6% at the beginning of the week, she has since edged up to 47.1
Betting Markets
65.8% chance of Clinton victory at the beginning of the week, now 67.3.
Small changes over the past 2 or 3 days but trending back to the Dems. Growing evidence that Trump's bounce was small and weak. In fact, in the averages, the best he could do was a tie or a sliver of a lead, according to some but not all sites. According to the folks at 538, if Trump wasn't leading by at least a few points in the averages after the convention, he was in serious trouble. Even McCain pulled ahead by a few points post-convention and we all remember how that turned out.
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