or just the eligible or registered voting population?

not sure how much that changes things.

55% of college educated...and the numbers explode for Hillary...

If more voters for Trump turnout for him we are f*cked.

I agree... However I think Clinton can replicate PBO's AA numbers and juice Hispanic and Asian turnout...

I wouldn't expect African Americans to embrace Clinton as they embraced Obama. But I am certain they hate Trump more than they could have ever hated someone as innocuous as Romney.

Trump likes to put a Hispanic face on undocumented workers but many of them are Asian and some are European.

I personally know both Asian and Hispanic undocumented workers.

She will do very well with that demographic, but not that well.

Even McCain and Romney did better....


If you like I will Find the exit polls.



* Latest Marist polls

As of July 25, per this PPP poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_72516.pdf

Marist is an A rated pollster , calls landline and cell phone users, and is a member of NCPP and AAPOR/ROPER:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

and the poll director , Lee Mirringoff was the former president of the National Council Of Public Polls.

I will take them over PPP, a robo caller whose work has been shrouded in controversy:



https://newrepublic.com/article/114682/ppp-polling-methodology-opaque-flawed


Will I cite PPP?

Yeah


But they are far from America's greatest pollster.

11 percent chose Neither, Other, or Undecided.

She gets only 33 percent of white voters.

In 2012, Obama got 96 percent of the AA vote and 41 percent of the white vote versus Romney in that state.

I take any landline only poll with a grain of salt. I can't stop anybody from hanging his or her hat on polls with 20th century methodology.

And we need AA turnout to be big in that state.

That's all I am saying.

Let's see the next wave of polls.

I rememberthat from MSNBC. So its not entirely impossible, especially if Obama campaigns hard for her.

1. turnout
2. willingness to stand in long lines and fight to vote as the effort to disenfranchise had already begun - it's even worse now

With this she will win.

If she gets 40% of the white vote she will have an Electoral College landslide and a 6-8% pop vote victory.

and forecasts are nice to play with but the only way that math works is to compare the GOTV efforts of 2008 and 2012 to now. Have the voters turnout been constant or increased in the various categories in your equation.

As an example, I wonder how the AA voters planning to vote compare to 2008. The same goes for women, white men and Hispanics. It would not surprise me to see a lower voter turnout this year compared to presidential races in years past.

Although I hope they are true:

1. 31% non-white share of the electorate. Last time estimate was 29% - and that was with Obama running, driving up historic levels of black turnout. Can this be replicated?

2. 80% Latino vote for HRC - I don't think Obama even got this share of the Latinos.

3. 75% Asian - again, I think this is higher or the same as last time.

Basically, I think that it's safe to assume that if she gets less than 40% of the white vote, things start looking very hairy for us.

I will say that Trump doesn't seem to have as mature and sophisticated a campaign GOTV operation as Clinton. Are we exploiting this fact and pushing these narratives to minorities that you are laying out?

We saw glimpses of it in the primaries.


Maybe I am Pollyannaish but I believe Team Clinton can match or exceed Obama's numbers among minorities.

The nuts and bolts of these campaign operations is a fascinating topic to me, since I'm in the software business and really admire how Obama harnessed data analytics and technology to drive GOTV and voter persuasion.

What glimpses did you see that led you to believe that the Clinton machine is firing on all cylinders?