2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAug 1: PPP Polling: Hillary leads Trump 45-42 in Pennsylvania
August 01, 2016
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clinton-has-narrow-lead-in-pennsylvania.html
Clinton has narrow lead in Pennsylvania
PPP's newest Pennsylvania poll, conducted entirely after the Democratic convention, finds Hillary Clinton with a narrow lead in the state. She's at 45% to 42% for Donald Trump, 4% for Gary Johnson, and 2% for Jill Stein. In a head to head match up just with Trump she leads by 4 points at 49-45.
Both polls- in Pennsylvania and nationally- PPP has done since the Democratic convention basically suggest that the race is back where it was in June. In late June we had Clinton up 46-42 on Trump head to head in Pennsylvania and 48-44 nationally. Clinton now leads 49-45 in Pennsylvania and 50-45 nationally so it appears everything that happened in the month of July had minimal effect on the margins between Clinton and Trump, it just helped move some undecided partisans skeptical of their party's nominees off the fence and toward the candidates they likely would have ended up with anyway.
Hillary Clinton's seen a decent improvement in her image over the last couple months in Pennsylvania. At the beginning of June she had a -21 net favorability rating in the state at 35/56, and that's now improved 8 points to -13 at 40/53. Like we saw nationally Trump's had an improvement in his numbers too but it's not as good as Clinton's- he was at -25 at 34/59 in early June and has now shifted up to -20 at 36/56 for a net 5 point improvement..................
Response to riversedge (Original post)
rjsquirrel This message was self-deleted by its author.
Cosmocat
(14,572 posts)than some of these crazy polls where she has these big leads.
Demsrule86
(68,667 posts)In October Real Clear Politics average poll in PA was Obama was up by 3.8 %. Obama won by 5.4 %
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html
Cosmocat
(14,572 posts)I feel reasonably good she will win here, I dont believe for a second she is up 9 like the poll that came out over the weekend.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)It's not significant at a 95% level of confidence but is at ~90% confidence.
People worry about MOE too much. A lead of a few points is likely a real lead.
TeamPooka
(24,254 posts)that are hicks to the max.
They are right in the middle of that part of the state
They love Trump there.
It might as well be Mississippi with some of the vile shit I hear coming out of people's mouths when I'm forced to go there for visits.
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)get the red out
(13,468 posts)That it is that close. Yes, it's fun to watch Trump's insanity, but it appears to not have the same effect on a lot of voters.
timlot
(456 posts)Obama won by 284K in 2012.
Response to timlot (Reply #5)
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VMA131Marine
(4,149 posts)Most likely, she really is in the lead. If the difference is greater than the MOE then there is a better than 95% chance she is leading. Fivethirtyeight.com's Nowcast model gives Hillary an 84% chance of winning PA if the election were held today. The most conservative Polls Plus forecast gives her a 67.7% (or 2 out of 3) chance of winning PA on election day
Response to VMA131Marine (Reply #15)
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VMA131Marine
(4,149 posts)you don't have to just rely on the one.
Response to VMA131Marine (Reply #20)
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Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)I am a stats guy. Even outside the MOE a lead might not be real. All MOE tells you is where you can be 95% certain it's real.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)I think Philly and Pittsburgh will carry the state.
TeddyR
(2,493 posts)Had Hillary up 1 point. The race is going to stay close. If Trump supporters haven't given up on him already they aren't going to.
President Obama won PA by 5% in 2012 and I don't expect Hillary to do better than President Obama in any state.
Demsrule86
(68,667 posts)and that s Quinnipiac which has been unreliable...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html
TeddyR
(2,493 posts)Sorry for any confusion. I frankly think that the polls will be more predictive in a couple of weeks than they are now. And I really don't think the national polls are important, unless they show Hillary with a huge lead. PA, OH, FL, IA, NV, VA, CO are the states we need to focus on.
Demsrule86
(68,667 posts)There is really good news out there...why?
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Like Nader did in Florida.
Response to onehandle (Reply #8)
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democrattotheend
(11,607 posts)With everything Trump has said and done this past week, how is she not up at least 10?
TeddyR
(2,493 posts)Are going to vote for Hillary Clinton.
Stubborn
(116 posts)Unfortunately, thems are the facts.
Response to democrattotheend (Reply #9)
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democrattotheend
(11,607 posts)But Obama won the state by 10 points in 2008, Central Pennsylvania and all. And that was despite a lot of people in Pennsyltucky who didn't want to vote for a black man.
John Poet
(2,510 posts)That won't be the case this time, obviously.
I expect they'll win PA in the end, but it may run very close.
democrattotheend
(11,607 posts)I never understood why Romney ceded the state until the very end.
apcalc
(4,465 posts)writes3000
(4,734 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Certainly seems it's been tilting that way.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)I believe Philly and Pittsburgh will carry the state, as they did for Obama. Young people will also be key - I hope Bernie does some stumping there.
The rest of the state might as well be Alabama.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Colorado than in PA.
Their polling is generally better than public polling.
Response to auntpurl (Reply #17)
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auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Republicans vote when they're ahead, Dems vote when they're behind. Republicans, because they are often authoritarians, get demoralized if they're losing and don't vote. So, if the polls are close and we do our jobs with GOTV, we will win.
vadermike
(1,416 posts)Remember PPP a a little bit more R leaning I think by about a pint or so they are very conservative I still think she is ahead remember Suffolk said 9 pets so if u combine the two it sounds about right maybe 5 pts
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Response to vadermike (Reply #14)
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Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Response to Loki Liesmith (Reply #35)
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Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Ryano42
(1,577 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)PA is an important bellweather state. If we win there is over. If not then we could have a contest.
lancer78
(1,495 posts)Trump's "Harrisburg looks like a war zone" comment.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)also indicates that Hillary is probably doing extremely well in other states, like Florida, Virginia and Colorado.
The map could look very different this year, even in a close race.
Of course, hopefully margins will widen across the board and HRC will win decisively.
TeddyR
(2,493 posts)In North Carolina. Seems that state is reverting back to being Republican-friendly, which is disappointing since it is my home state.
glennward
(989 posts)mvd
(65,180 posts)the central part of the state, and he may be fooling some in the east and west parts with his trade talk. So I wouldn't be surprised if it is close. But I really think PA will be blue on Election Day. Trump is just going to implode more and more. Even if he did not, I think Clinton wins PA. PA has always been good to Hillary.
ebbie15644
(1,216 posts)I'm not in Central PA, I'm about 13 miles east of the city of Pittsburgh and the HATRED of our president and Hillary is mind boggling. They will vote Trump no matter what
TomCADem
(17,390 posts)...going away. His build a wall rhetoric resonates.
MFM008
(19,818 posts)Even if she isn't, why is it that here some
on DU we cant wait to get HRCs poll numbers out when they seem "TIED" ?
Every election cycle we tweak about those "battleground" states that NEVER go red
and another one is "what if the election is TIED electorally"
and its a blow out for us in the electoral
college?
pearls..............................clutched
smelling salts....................check
fainting couch.....................check
LenaBaby61
(6,977 posts)Probably spent too much time asking questions like:
1) Would you rather have head lice in your hair or eat them in your Spaghetti?
2) IF Jill Stein, Hitler or Donald Trump were drowning, whose life would you save?
3) Would you rather eat feces or have a meteorite hit your house with your family in it and they all die?