Election 2016: Potential Map

In 2012, Barack Obama was re-elected, over Mitt Romney, by +3.86 percentage points and with 26 states, plus District of Columbia, for a total 332 electoral votes. (It was Obama 51.02% • Romney 47.16%.)

If we are in for an Election 2016, Hillary Clinton landslide, over Donald Trump, most recent polls suggest a dramatic national shift of additional Democratic support. (I've been seeing anywhere from a national +9 to +15. Since 2000, the two-party vote has varied between 96.25 to 99.00 percent. Winning by +9 is 54% • 45%. Winning by +15 is 57% • 42%. Of course, there is Libertarian Party nominee and former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson recently polling above five percent. That would mean one could reduce the two-party vote down to, say, the low-90s percentile. But the percentage-points margins, not so much the percentages, tell the story of how this map will likely shake out.)

One way to tell who will win is when the national exit polls come in. If Hillary Clinton does better with holding same-party votes (which also means doing better at winning however many crossover votes), it's likely she will also carry the independent vote nationwide. At this rate, she will win on all three counts.

Indications are that we may get a landslide of the U.S. Popular Vote by at least +10. Given there were an estimated 131 million and 129 million, from 2008 and 2012, raw votes cast for president of the United States…to get to +10 would be national shift (2012-to-2016) of +7.8 million additional Democratic Party votes.

That would definitely move the map.

Here is my estimate, as of 08.06.2016, of the potential.…

Perusal of the site 270toWin.com, those colored in a strong red will definitely carry Republican for Donald Trump (even if Hillary Clinton were to win nationally by +15). Those in strong blue are all the states which carried for Barack Obama's re-election in 2012. (To have a national Democratic shift of +6, at a minimum, would mean none of them would flip Republican.) Those in light blue are the ones poised to flip from 2012 Republican to 2016 Democratic if the national margin, for a Hillary Clinton landslide ends up, say, +10. Those not colored are states which could fall like dominoes if the popular-vote margin reaches +15. (Note: Nebraska is shown in purple. What it really is is a light blue, as in a Democratic pickup, with the state's 2nd Congressional District. That's the area of Omaha. Barack Obama won a Democratic pickup of Nebraska #02 in 2008. It tends to produce margins similar to the state of Indiana.)