Good chance polls will tighten over the next week or 2 but not much evidence of that yet.

People cherry-picking to force the case a bit. In some sense, the rest of the election is about Clinton and not Trump. Trump's favorables are as bad as ever and perhaps getting worse.Trump probably won't "pivot" and even if he tried, the public isn't amnesiac and won't forget everything he's done and said for a year+.But at her worst moments, Clinton's image has been almost as bad as Trump's. Not so hard to imagine something that drags it down again. We're nearing the point where Clinton has to screw up, or get screwed up by leaks/scandals/gaffes/news, to lose. Not there yet but close.

No sign yet of a reversal in Clinton's bounce. Her lead has held steady at ~8% for a few days, per our nowcast. Our long-term models project either a lot (polls-plus) or a little (polls-only) tightening eventually, however. If you average polls-only and polls-plus, Clinton's projected Nov. 8 margin is 5-6%. Roughly equal chance she (i) loses (ii) wins by 10%+.

The amount of "unskewing" already going on is an extraordinarily bearish indicator for Trump.