2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBREAKING: New Quinnipiac Battleground State polls
FL: Clinton 46 Trump 45
OH: Clinton 49 Trump 45
PA: Clinton 52 Trump 42
Previously:
FL: Trump 42 - Clinton 39
OH: Clinton 41 Trump 41
PA: Trump 43 Cllinton 41
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/081016_SWING_PRES_+_BP.pdf
liberal N proud
(60,348 posts)Buckeye_Democrat
(14,858 posts)Look at nearby West Virginia and Kentucky.
I went fishing at a place called Paint Creek Lake several years ago, and the people around there acted like they despised me and my "Yankee accent."
liberal N proud
(60,348 posts)I live west of Cleveland and a couple of the communities are called suburbs or West Virginia
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,858 posts)Buckeye_Democrat
(14,858 posts)... coal mines are full of them.
The area around Paint Creek Lake that I mentioned used to be a big coal mining area.
I feel some pity for them too because I know that they and their ancestors have/had some pretty rough lives.
underpants
(182,957 posts)As a native of Pittsburgh once told me
"There's Philly and Pittsburgh and a whole lot of Alabama in between"
-James Carville
TeamPooka
(24,273 posts)Very rural area.
I found it quite shocking the first few times I went out there after having spent lots of time in Philly and Pitts.
Lack of respect for people of color, unions, and any sort of education or teachers.
But they sure like complaining about shit.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)I don't have a picture of some trumpsters in my garden club, but if I did it'd look something like this.
I don't know these people at a church picnic in Georgia either, but there are no doubt some trumpsters there, and at least a few about now having some serious doubts. (Asking's become rather bad manners.)
THIS is what they look like.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,858 posts)I get a kick out of making some Deliverance references sometimes.
Southern Ohio indeed tends to have a larger share of them than many other places that I've seen.
I went fishing with a buddy down there, and he was truly frightened by them and their general animosity toward us. LOL! He said that I'd need to ask them for directions if necessary because he wasn't going to do it again.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)A lot of it was filmed in this area. There's also an area in the mountains not far away that my realtor refused to go into to show listings. I did go myself just to cross one with a wonderful view off the list, but all I saw in the woods was probable druggies/meth-makers who couldn't afford the city. Expressionless glances but I didn't slow down to check for animosity.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,858 posts)Here's another personal story, but the sampling is so small that it probably means NOTHING.
When I was in Atlanta for a conference several years ago, I detected some leeriness from black people when I walked into gas stations and the like (I'm super-white). As soon as I spoke, they acted so nice and friendly! It was pretty much the opposite of what I experienced in Southern Ohio (from white people there).
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)extremely reserved faces, eyes that didn't see me, of some black people I'd interact with in stores, etc. Extremely different from California. Both a defensive and an offensive mien depending on the person.
still_one
(92,479 posts)should assume anything.
National polls should never be relied on for Presidential elections where states determine who the President will be through the electoral college
Ace Rothstein
(3,195 posts)Hillary is schlonging Trump there.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)PearliePoo2
(7,768 posts)PA looks good though.
stopbush
(24,397 posts)VMA131Marine
(4,158 posts)They still seem to be an outlier.
The OH number seems consistent with other polls though fivethirtyeight doesn't show any polls more recent than July 24
misterhighwasted
(9,148 posts)helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)Kber
(5,043 posts)UMTerp01
(1,048 posts)Latinos are more in Florida than their representation as a whole in the country and there's no way Florida is that close. You tried it Quinnipiac
SaschaHM
(2,897 posts)Clinton being 1 point down in FL in Q's poll is actually a very good thing given how they've skewed towards Trump.
Johnny2X2X
(19,213 posts)And without PA there is no way for Trump to win save for flipping some reliably blue states.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)They haven't incorporated these polls into their model yet, but the last Quinnipiac polls, they adjusted for the house effect with +5 for Hillary.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)triron
(22,027 posts)Seems the effect of adding Johnson and Stein almost always decreases Clinton's lead. For instance when they are included Florida is a tie. Wonder if Stein is actually the one pulling votes from Clinton (net)?
MineralMan
(146,339 posts)he's losing badly in those states. Not good news for The Donald.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)They have a consistant trend towards republicans. So he says its Florida +5, Ohio +8, Penn +13
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Gothmog
(145,722 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Motley13
(3,867 posts)Our Latinos are mostly Cuban, many of them repug, however Miami votes Democratic as does Palm Beach & Broward (Fort Lauderdale).
Many Latino reps in Miami, although repug, do not support the maggot.
Orlando has been going Dem lately & Gainesville is Dem (U of FL), & Tampa
2008, 2012 were close, Obama winning by 61,000 in 08, 73,000 in 12.
VOTE, VOTE for HER
book_worm
(15,951 posts)is nothing but a dream.