Clinton’s Post-Convention Bump Is Showing No Signs Of Fading - 538
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-post-convention-bump-is-holding-steady/
Hillary Clintons polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model which accounts for the fundamentals, as well as the tendency for a candidates numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June. Heres polls-only:
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Clintons chances were buoyed by strong numbers in both national and state polling released this weekend:
◾ A new ABC News/Washington Post national poll published on Sunday showed Clinton up 8 percentage points among registered voters. Clintons lead jumped 4 points compared to the previous ABC News/Washington survey, conducted before the conventions.
◾ A Morning Consult poll, also published Sunday, also found Clinton up 8 points among registered voters. Clinton was up 5 percentage points in the same poll last weekend, conducted after both conventions. That is, Clintons post-convention surge has continued in Morning Consults polling.
◾ Two national tracking polls which have generally shown good numbers for Trump also found Clinton building or holding onto her post-convention bounce. Clinton led by 1 percentage point in the latest USC Dornsife/LA Times survey, and by 6 points in the CVOTER International poll both matching her largest leads from those pollsters.
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