Trump's other polling headache (enthusiasm & likely voters/registered voters)

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trumps-other-polling-headache-226888

Trump's other polling headache
Hillary Clinton's convention bounce isn't the only thing the GOP nominee should be worried about.
By STEVEN SHEPARD 08/11/16 05:17 AM EDT

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That’s a big turnaround from four years ago, when despite President Barack Obama’s overall advantage among the electorate, Republicans and voters who said they supported former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney were the more enthusiastic and motivated group.

That phenomenon was clearly on display when a number of national pollsters began screening for likely voters in August and September 2012. Obama’s registered-voter lead over Romney immediately shrank among likely voters in all seven major national polls the first time they implemented a likely voter screen.

The movement among likely voters was occasionally jarring. Over the seven polls, Obama’s margin over Romney shrank by more than 4.4 points. A CNN/ORC poll in late August 2012 found Obama leading Romney by 9 points among registered voters, but only 2 points among likely voters. After the conventions that year, in early September, Obama’s 6-point lead among registered voters in an ABC News/Washington Post poll was slashed to just a point.


While only a handful of national public polls have started surveying likely voters, that doesn’t seem to be happening this year. Clinton led Trump by 8 points among registered voters in the ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Sunday, and 7 points among likely voters. A Monmouth University poll out Monday moved slightly in the other direction: Clinton led by 12 points among registered voters and 13 points among likely voters. (The new Bloomberg News likely-voter poll did not produce results for all registered voters.)

Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said Trump’s numbers among likely voters are unlikely to grow until Republicans are motivated to start telling pollsters they will cast ballots. In Monmouth’s new poll, Murray said, 79 percent of Democratic voters said they were certain to vote, compared with only 61 percent of GOP voters.

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tl/dr: Hillary is holding steady so far with a 7 or 8 point lead in either likely voters or registered voters, unlike in 2012. She is doing better in enthusiasm than President Obama did in 2012.