Hypothesis of likely outcomes for the Republican Party after the 2016 Election

My speculation on what could happen to the Republican Party after the 2016 election.
(please provide constructive comment/criticism)


Possible 2016 Election Outcome Scenarios:
1) Trump Wins

2) Trump Loses by a Small Margin

3) Trump Loses by a Large Margin

4) Trump Drops Out Willingly
a. Replacement Wins
b. Replacement Loses

5) Trump Drops Out Unwillingly
a. Replacement Wins
b. Replacement Loses

At this point in time (i.e. mid-August 2016) , Scenario #1 will not be addressed, given the low probability of that outcome as presented in Nate Silver’s tracking of the election at the website http://fivethirtyeight.com

Scenarios #4 and #5 will induce an unknown number of consequences and counter-effects which would render any meaningful discussion, at this point of time, to not much more than an exchange of speculated opinion.

Scenarios #2 and #3 are the more likely outcomes and the ones that lend themselves to reasonable supposition.

A new factional divergence has emerged within the Republican Party in 2016 as the one that divides the pro-Trumps verses the Never-Trumps. This new division may be the deciding factor for an individual to decide on whether to remain in the Republican Party (by name) or split off into another political entity, labeled here as the “Neo-Republican Party” which would be presumably headed/funded by Donald Trump or his personal designate(s), or switch allegiance to an existing 2nd tier 3rd party (i.e. Libertarian, Constitution or even Green).

Likely Options for individual Republicans:

1) Stay in current Republican Party
2) Switch to “unaffiliated” or ”independent”
3) Defect to existing 3rd Party (i.e. work within existing 3rd Party Platform)
4) Hijack 3rd Party (i.e. alter platform to become a de facto Neo-Republican Party)
5) Switch to whole-cloth new Neo-Republican Party

The likely effects on existing party structures are summarized belwo, given the following definitions:
Tier #1 Parties: Democratic and Republican (decide elections)
Tier #2 Parties (i.e. 3rd Parties): Libertarian, Constitution and Green (may measurably influence elections)
Tier #3 Parties: too numerous to name (have no measurable influence on elections)

Scenarios #2 and #3 (Trump Loses) Post-Election Options for Republicans:

1) Stay in current Republican Party (status quo all around)
a. Republican Party remains as is, more or less
b. Democratic Party remains as is, more or less
c. Libertarian Party remains as is, more or less
d. Constitution Party remains as is, more or less
e. Green Party remains as is more or less
f. Neo-Republican Party is not formed to any meaningful effect (3rd Tier Party at best)

2) Switch to “unaffiliated” or ”independent”
a. Republican Party is diminished and is rendered to be effectively the largest 2nd tier 3rd party
b. Democratic Party remains as is, more or less
c. Libertarian Party gains somewhat with additional independent votes
d. Constitution Party gains somewhat with additional independent votes
e. Green Party remains as is more or less
f. Neo-Republican Party is not formed to any meaningful effect (3rd Tier Party at best)

3) Defect to existing 3rd Party
a. Republican Party is diminished and is rendered to the 4th 2nd tier 3rd party
b. Democratic Party remains as is, more or less
c. Libertarian Party gains significantly and may even rival diminished Republican Party
d. Constitution Party gains somewhat with Republican Defections
e. Green Party remains as is more or less
f. Neo-Republican Party is not formed to any meaningful effect (3rd Tier Party at best)

4) Hijack existing 3rd Party (i.e. change platform to become a de facto Neo-Republican Party)
a. Republican Party is diminished and is rendered to be effectively the largest 2nd tier 3rd party
b. Democratic Party remains as is, more or less
c. Libertarian/Constitution or Green Party destroyed and reformed as Neo-Republican Party

5) Switch to whole-cloth new Neo-Republican Party
a. Republican Party is diminished and is rendered to be effectively the largest of five 2nd tier 3rd parties
b. Democratic Party remains as is, more or less
c. Libertarian Party diminished with defections to the Neo-Republican Party
d. Constitution Party diminished with defections to the Neo-Republican Party
e. Green Party remains as is more or less (smallest 2nd tier 3rd party or possibly 3rd Tier)
f. Neo-Republican Party is formed as the 5th 2nd tier 3rd party

Ranking of Options
(From most likely (by count of republicans) to least likely)

Trump loses by a Large Margin:
1st: Option #1 (I think most R’s will stay R’s, with a significant number of Option #2’s and #3’s)
2nd: Option #3
3rd: Option #5 (if Trump has the energy and funds to make it so and until he gets bored)
4th: Option #2
5th: Option #4

Trump loses by a Small Margin:
1st: Option #3
2nd: Option #5 (if Trump has the energy and funds to make it so and until he gets bored)
3rd: Option #2
4th: Option #1
5th: Option #4