2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumA massive new study debunks a widespread theory for Donald Trump’s success
By Max Ehrenfreund and Jeff Guo August 12 at 11:00 AM
Economic distress and anxiety across working-class white America have become a widely discussed explanation for the success of Donald Trump. It seems to make sense. Trump's most fervent supporters tend to be white men without college degrees. This same group has suffered economically in our increasingly globalized world, as machines have replaced workers in factories and labor has shifted overseas. Trump has promised to curtail trade and other perceived threats to American workers, including immigrants.
Yet a major new analysis from Gallup, based on 87,000 interviews the polling company conducted over the past year, suggests this narrative is not complete. While there does seem to be a relationship between economic anxiety and Trump's appeal, the straightforward connection that many observers have assumed does not appear in the data.
According to this new analysis, those who view Trump favorably have not been disproportionately affected by foreign trade or immigration, compared with people with unfavorable views of the Republican presidential nominee. The results suggest that his supporters, on average, do not have lower incomes than other Americans, nor are they more likely to be unemployed.
Yet while Trump's supporters might be comparatively well off themselves, they come from places where their neighbors endure other forms of hardship. In their communities, white residents are dying younger, and it is harder for young people who grow up poor to get ahead.
-snip-
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/08/12/a-massive-new-study-debunks-a-widespread-theory-for-donald-trumps-success/
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)negative propaganda. It worked did it not?
Angry Dragon
(36,693 posts)Native
(5,942 posts)Fast Walker 52
(7,723 posts)Bill USA
(6,436 posts)"Among those who are similar in terms of income, education and other factors, those who view Trump favorably are more likely to be found in white enclaves racially isolated Zip codes where the amount of diversity is lower than in surrounding areas."
IOW, demagoguery emphasizing the theme of the threat of "the other" works best with those who have less actual, real world experience providing them the opportunity to form reality based decisions on immigration and race.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Just like in the French revolution, it's those who have done "well but not as well as they wanted to" that are the most angry.