But these scenarios are the worst case scenario for Hillary. If he campaign totally collapses and Trump runs a perfect one from here on out she will still be favored to win.

More likely her worst case is about 282 with Trump taking FL, IA, OH, NC, GA and AZ. PA, NH, VA, WI, NV, CO, and MI simply aren't swing states anymore and Trump is not close to competitive in any of them. The media is still pretending those are swing states, but right now Hillary has 282 EVs that are clearly hers. There's no way she gets less than 282.

You say it's not a swing state anymore, but two recent polls there have Clinton up by 1% and 2%.

Furthermore, I could see the RNC giving up on Trump and not doing anything in states like Michigan and Virginia, that have no Senate races, or in Georgia, where even if Clinton is making it close the incumbent Republican Senator is well ahead. On that view, the RNC might direct its resources to places like Nevada, with a Senate race expected to be close. That would indirectly benefit Trump if the pro-Heck work gets Republican voters to the polls.

In general, though, I agree with the conventional wisdom that Trump has an Electoral College problem.

My 270towin map for a Trump victory had him giving up on Florida and making a major effort in the Rust Belt. Clinton has some vulnerability there on the trade issue. If Trump could hold all of Romney's states and add (in increasing order of difficulty) Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, he'd get to precisely 270. Alternatively, he could lose Wisconsin and make up for it with any two of Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. It's still a tall order, given that he's currently trailing in the three other Rust Belt states, though only by single digits in each.

Trump has major work to do to get any of those losing maps. According to 538 polls only model (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo) Clinton has the following likelihood of winning the following states:

CO, 89%
NM, 92%
IA, 76%
FL, 79%
NC, 76%
OH, 79%
PA, 89%
MI, 94%
WI, 93%
GA, 52%
AZ, 56%
VA, 90%
NH, 82%
NV, 80%

The states that look like "toss ups" according to this model are AZ, GA, and SC!

We have to stay vigilant, but there is no reason to freak out.

I like playing with that site to lol.

nt

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>DON"T LET UP UNTIL NOVEMBER 9, 2016!!!<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

because of backward policies that only enable the super rich and do nothing for anyone else. That makes it difficult for them to attain over 270 in the presidential election this year and hopefully for years to come.

It's always curious to me though, when anyone proclaims the death of the republican party. Because right now they have a stranglehold on the house & a majority in the senate. Democrats must win more in every election, especially local and state. We must win at mid-term elections too, and win big.

In the last quarter century these assholes have been wrong, badly, about pretty much everything.

But, they have been held accountable only two times - in 06 and 08, when they had totally fucked the country.

THEN, for no good reason other than them throwing a fucking hissy fit, this country gave them the biggest mid term win in our lives, a massive house majority and control of the senate in 10.

And, let's be honest, had their deranged base not elected a complete lunatic as its nominee, they would be on track right now to have all three arms of the federal government in January.

They have to be THAT bad, Bush lying us into Iraq and blowing up the economy and Trump bad, to suffer the consequences of their jackassery at the polls.

And, it is a near certainly, again, assuming it plays out like it appears, that Hillary will get elected, they will throw a fucking fit and shut government down (or more accurately continue to keep it shut down for going on 10 years) and the idiots in this country will allow them more power in DC in 2018.

karnacky has pointed out multiple times that even if you only give hillary the swing states where she is ahead by more than 9 points, she still wins.

And, as they say, trump isn't even competitive in ANY swing state, and has ZERO chance of turning blue states red. Hillary on the other hand, has a growing list of competitve or leading in red states.

But, we still have almost 90 days and a lot of crap to wade through, including putins crony campaign.

Ohio will be close, but has a greater chance of going blue again than swinging back to red.

My daughter campaigned for Steve Driehaus. He won that year.

From the day that Obama won re-election, they were going to have to win like 9 of 10 swing states and not lose Texas, and that was NEVER going to happen. That trump is their nominee makes out job easier for sure, but the General this year was ALWAYS going to be won in the Democratic Primary. It's why I voted for Senator Sanders, because if there was a year to vote bold and not have it hurt us in the General, this was it. As it stands,
I will vote for Hillary in the General. Sanders run has only made her, and our Party Platform, better.
=)

That's what is really going to be important this time out. Down tickets will rule.

when she was at -240($1000 to win $416),she is at -400 now($1000 to win $250).

80% chance of winning,and going up daily.