WA-GOV: Inslee leads Republican challenger by 12 points.

The race for Governor appears frozen. The results of the August survey are exactly the same as they were in April and only 1-2 points different from the Primary Election results. Inslee led Bill Bryant by a 48% to 36% margin in both April and August. He won the Primary by 49% to 38%.

The underlying dynamics of the race have not changed much either.

Party identi ication is certainly key to Inslee’s electoral strength. Inslee had 92% of the support of Democrats and Bryant had 83% of the Republican support. Bryant led among Independents 39-31%. Inslee is polling 10 points above the proportion of Democrats in this survey. Last January he was only 4 points ahead of the number of Democrats. Bryant is polling 12 points above the proportion of Republi- cans. In January he was 8 points ahead of the Republican identi iers. The advantage is to Inslee because Democrats held a 12-point party identi ication advantage in this survey (38% to 24% Republican).

Another key to this election is incumbency. Elections are almost always largely a referendum on the incumbent. Even though this year’s electorate has been cast as highly dissatis ied with the status quo, there has not been a strong constituency to turn Inslee out. His job performance ratings remain under- water, where they have been his entire term (p.3). However, they improved by a net +10 points since the first of the year.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Elway-Poll-Governor-President-081516.pdf