2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSam Wang Now Puts Hillary's Chances at 95%...
By GayIthacan
Sunday Aug 21, 2016 · 11:49 AM MST
Sam Wang, over at Princeton Election Consortium, has switched his models over to the General Election Final Mode and set Hillarys election odds of being elected at 92% current and 95% Election Day levels.
His lead article explains his reasoning and provides a brief history on the smallness of late-season shifts in polling results since 1992.
Remember Sam outperformed Nate in both 2008 and 2012!
Enjoy!
Princeton Election Consortium
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/8/21/1562408/-Sam-Wang-Now-Puts-Hillary-s-Chances-at-98
pandr32
(11,611 posts)oasis
(49,407 posts)calimary
(81,459 posts)It shouldn't be just a defeat. It should be a butt-fucking. Beat the frickin' SNOT outta them. As some orange man recently said - send them outta here "on a stretcher, folks."
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)I'm thinking they may be ticked off for Trump's comment about McCain not being a hero.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Wouldn't that be fun?!
calimary
(81,459 posts)retirement. He's served in many ways, for many years. Time to kick back, Senator. It won't be like you'd be sent out to pasture. You're still gonna get invited on TV for a helluva lot of face time. I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked up as some network political analyst somewhere, and start a whole new career.
FreeState
(10,580 posts)They may have their electoral votes go to Hillary, however it will be because they split the republican vote between two or more candidates, leaving Hillary to win by default, every other federal race will be its predictable red.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Not in a political sense but in how bold they are. They seem to hedge their bets and play up the "anything can happen" angle. It gets to the point where the movement in their numbers makes no sense. It seems like she can go from 7 points to 8 points in a poll from week to week, and her odds go down, or stay flat at 7 to 7 and go down, or go from 7 to 6 and goes down. I sometimes think they are too afraid to show any significant movement in their odds
Johnny2X2X
(19,114 posts)Silver has basically admitted his models have a flaw that is being exposed. They figure trends too much and they figure that the trends will continue. So if Hillary's lead goes from 8 to 7.5 his model puts too much weight into that trend continuing when it's really just noise.
I use the NY Times upshot that has several models combined. Been pretty static at 86-88%.
localroger
(3,630 posts)Before Silver got into politics he was doing sabermetrics and sports modeling, and there a decline in an athlete's performance could portend a real physical problem. In politics though that sort of thing is hardly ever the result of something like a pulled muscle or torn ligament; it's populations reacting to the news and changing their allegiances, and there is a lot more intertia there than there might be in sports modeling.
Raine1967
(11,589 posts)"I want us to run scared the whole time," he said.
Obama decried the clashes between supporters of likely Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and protesters on Thursday at a rally in San Jose, California.
I REALLY like seeing this news, but I sure am going to work to GOTV.
NNadir
(33,544 posts)I believe they had Kerry winning.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Picking up AZ or GA would be nice, too.
bucolic_frolic
(43,281 posts)never trust an egghead
Now doesn't matter
Election Day is all that matters